Landscape features predict the current and forecast the future geographic spread of Lyme disease

Abstract

Lyme disease, the most prevalent vector-borne disease in North America, is increasing in incidence and geographic distribution as the tick vector, Ixodes scapularis , spreads to new regions. We re-construct the spatial-temporal invasion of the tick and human disease in the Midwestern US, a major focus of Lyme disease transmission, from 1967 to 2018, to analyse the influence of spatial factors on the geographic spread. A regression model indicates that three spatial factors—proximity to a previously invaded county, forest cover and adjacency to a river—collectively predict tick occurrence. Validation of the predictive capability of this model correctly predicts counties invaded or uninvaded with 90.6% and 98.5% accuracy, respectively. Reported incidence increases in counties after the first report of the tick; based on this modelled relationship, we identify 31 counties where we suspect I. scapularis already occurs yet remains undetected. Finally, we apply the model to forecast tick establishment by 2021 and predict 42 additional counties where I. scapularis will probably be detected based upon historical drivers of geographic spread. Our findings leverage resources dedicated to tick and human disease reporting and provide the opportunity to take proactive steps (e.g. educational efforts) to prevent and limit transmission in areas of future geographic spread.

Mapping the risk distribution of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato in China from 1986 to 2020: a geospatial modelling analysis

“…Although featured by different ecological niches, all representing indicate higher environmental suitability for the propagation of tick vectors and wild animals. Vegetation-related variables such as NDVI and closed-canopy woodland were almost positively correlated at both stages of the model, which was in line with our expectations, as abundant vegetation is suitable for B. burgdorferi and its vectors and hosts[ 25 , 42 ]. In the stage 1 model, closed canopy woodland was the most important factor, indicating forests are important for B. burgdorferi to establish ecological cycles[ 25 ].…”

“…Vegetation-related variables such as NDVI and closed-canopy woodland were almost positively correlated at both stages of the model, which was in line with our expectations, as abundant vegetation is suitable for B. burgdorferi and its vectors and hosts[ 25 , 42 ]. In the stage 1 model, closed canopy woodland was the most important factor, indicating forests are important for B. burgdorferi to establish ecological cycles[ 25 ]. However, this factor was less important in the stage 2 model, possibly because more specific habitats including composition and population size of different vectors and animal hosts have a greater impact on whether there was a high risk of B. burgdorferi .…”

Species-Level Profiling of Ixodes pacificus Bacterial Microbiomes Reveals High Variability Across Short Spatial Scales at Different Taxonomic Resolutions

“…In this study, we solely focused on adult I. pacificus ticks from Alameda County, CA. These generalist feeders thrive on a wide array of vertebrate hosts and through changes within their surrounding local and global environments, have thrived beyond their ''classical'' endemic zone (Hahn et al, 2016;Gardner et al, 2020). This migration could alter normal I. pacificus processes and survival throughout their life cycle.…”

“…This TBD and others have become major public health concerns as they continue to spread beyond their traditional epidemiological zones (Sonenshine, 2018), in large part through the continual change in climate (Pfeiffer, 2018). The warming climate increases winter survival for ticks in their traditional habitats and also provides for their movement into regions that were previously too climatically harsh for their survival (Clover and Lane, 1995;Eisen et al, 2016;Hahn et al, 2016;Sonenshine, 2018;Gardner et al, 2020).…”

Effect of Land-Use Change on the Changes in Human Lyme Risk in the United States

“…Lyme disease, as one of the most influential tick-borne diseases in North America, is now still spreading geographically and increasing in incidence in the United States of America, particularly in the upper Midwestern and northeastern states [1,2]. It has been suggested that the reported number of human cases in the USA has tripled between 2004 and 2016 [3]. Lyme disease has become a serious public health concern and a recent study made a prediction that human Lyme cases in the USA will increase by 20% in the next two decades [4].…”