Landslide Deformation Analysis and Prediction with a VMD-SA-LSTM Combined Model

Abstract

The evolution of landslides is influenced by the complex interplay of internal geological factors and external triggering factors, resulting in nonlinear dynamic changes. Although deep learning methods have demonstrated advantages in predicting multivariate landslide displacement, their performance is often constrained by the challenges of extracting intricate features from extended time-series data. To address this challenge, we propose a novel displacement prediction model that integrates Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), Self-Attention (SA), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. The model first employs VMD to decompose cumulative landslide displacement into trend, periodic, and stochastic components, followed by an assessment of the correlation between these components and the triggering factors using grey relational analysis. Subsequently, the self-attention mechanism is incorporated into the LSTM model to enhance its ability to capture complex dependencies. Finally, each displacement component is fed into the SA-LSTM model for separate predictions, which are then reconstructed to obtain the cumulative displacement prediction. Using the Zhonghai Village tunnel entrance (ZVTE) landslide as a case study, we validated the model with displacement data from GPS point 105 and made predictions for GPS point 104 to evaluate the model’s generalization capability. The results indicated that the RMSE and MAPE for SA-LSTM, LSTM, and TCN-LSTM at GPS point 105 were 0.3251 and 1.6785, 0.6248 and 2.9130, and 1.1777 and 5.5131, respectively. These findings demonstrate that SA-LSTM outperformed the other models in terms of complex feature extraction and accuracy. Furthermore, the RMSE and MAPE at GPS point 104 were 0.4232 and 1.0387, further corroborating the model’s strong extrapolation capability and its effectiveness in landslide monitoring.