Landslide risk assessment and acceptable risk

Fell, Robin

doi:10.1139/t94-031

Cited by 389 publications

(209 citation statements)

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“…From 1980 onward and especially toward the end of the millennium, the risk concept has been increasingly adapted and introduced as a systematic approach for dealing with natural hazards (Bründl and Margreth 2015). Formal methods for avalanche risk evolved from landslide risk assessment techniques (Varnes 1984;Fell 1994;Barbolini et al 2004;McClung 2005) and are today's best practice for determining risk to fixed infrastructure such as buildings, utilities and transportation corridors (e.g., Bründl and Margreth 2015;CAA 2016). Even though the use of risk-based systems was becoming well established for land-use planning in avalanche terrain, the risk concept had not been formally applied to backcountry recreation and operational avalanche forecasting until Statham (2008) described how hazard, exposure and vulnerability interact with mobile elements-at-risk.…”

Section: Overarching Risk Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

A conceptual model of avalanche hazard

Statham

Haegeli

Greene³

et al. 2017

Nat Hazards

114

112

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This conceptual model of avalanche hazard identifies the key components of avalanche hazard and structures them into a systematic, consistent workflow for hazard and risk assessments. The method is applicable to all types of avalanche forecasting operations, and the underlying principles can be applied at any scale in space or time. The concept of an avalanche problem is introduced, describing how different types of avalanche problems directly influence the assessment and management of the risk. Four sequential questions are shown to structure the assessment of avalanche hazard, namely: (1) What type of avalanche problem(s) exists? (2) Where are these problems located in the terrain? (3) How likely is it that an avalanche will occur? and (4) How big will the avalanche be? Our objective was to develop an underpinning for qualitative hazard and risk assessments and address this knowledge gap in the avalanche forecasting literature. We used judgmental decomposition to elicit the avalanche forecasting process from forecasters and then described it within a risk-based framework that is consistent with other natural hazards disciplines.

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Section: Overarching Risk Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

A conceptual model of avalanche hazard

Statham

Haegeli

Greene³

et al. 2017

Nat Hazards

114

112

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“…We considered the relation of vulnerability as the impact of natural hazards, generally measured in terms of damages or losses, and assessed the vulnerability as the expected loss degree of an element (or set element) at risk as a consequence of a hazardous event [15,16]. Meanwhile, we further normalised the vulnerability to a value between 0 and 1, as the expected degree of loss varying from no damage to complete disruption.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A novel approach to flood risk assessment: the Exposure-Vulnerability matrices

et al. 2016

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Abstract. The classical approach to flood defence, focused on reducing the probability of flooding through hard defences, has been gradually substituted by flood risk management approach, which accepts the idea of coping with floods, and aims at reducing both probability and the consequences of flooding. In this view, the concept of vulnerability becomes central, such as the (non-structural) measures for its increment. However, the evaluations for the effectiveness and methods of non-structural measure and the vulnerability are less studied, compared to the structural solutions. In this paper, we adopted the Longano catchment in Sicily, Italy, as the case study. The methodology developed in the work enabled a qualitative evaluation of the consequences of floods, based on a crisscross analysis of vulnerability curves and classes of exposure for assets at risk. A GIS-based tool was used to evaluate each element at risk inside an Exposure-Vulnerability matrix. The construction of an E-V matrix allowed a better understanding of the actual situation within a catchment and the effectiveness of non-structural measures for a site. Referring directly to vulnerability can also estimate the possible consequences of an event even in those catchments where the damage data are absent. The instrument proposed can be useful for authorities responsible for development and periodical review of adaptive flood risk management plans.

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“…A review of the vast literature on landslide hazard assessment (see: Varnes and IAEG, 1984;Hutchinson, 1995;Guzzetti et al, 1999;and references herein), and of the smaller literature on landslide risk assessment (Einstein, 1988(Einstein, , 1997Fell, 1994Fell, , 2000Cruden and Fell, 1997) is not within our scope. In this section we briefly review the concepts and terminology related to landslide hazard and risk assessment, and we present a new geomorphological methodology to evaluate landslide hazard and to estimate landslide risk.…”

Section: Hazard and Risk Assessment Strategymentioning

confidence: 97%

“…It is generally considered to be equal to the likelihood of death or injury, or to the expected monetary loss due to the occurrence of a landslide (Varnes and IAEG, 1984 ;Einstein, 1988Einstein, , 1997Michael-Leiba et al, 1999;Fell, 1994Fell, , 2000Fell and Hartford, 1997). Landside risk is usually defined as the product of landslide hazard and vulnerability.…”

Section: Concepts and Terminologymentioning

confidence: 99%

A geomorphological approach to the estimation of landslide hazards and risks in Umbria, Central Italy

Cardinali

Reichenbach

Guzzetti

et al. 2002

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

265

142

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Abstract. We present a geomorphological method to evaluate landslide hazard and risk. The method is based on the recognition of existing and past landslides, on the scrutiny of the local geological and morphological setting, and on the study of site-specific and historical information on past landslide events. For each study area a multi-temporal landslide inventory map has been prepared through the interpretation of various sets of stereoscopic aerial photographs taken over the period 1941-1999, field mapping carried out in the years 2000 and 2001, and the critical review of site-specific investigations completed to solve local instability problems. The multi-temporal landslide map portrays the distribution of the existing and past landslides and their observed changes over a period of about 60 years. Changes in the distribution and pattern of landslides allow one to infer the possible evolution of slopes, the most probable type of failures, and their expected frequency of occurrence and intensity. This information is used to evaluate landslide hazard, and to estimate the associated risk. The methodology is not straightforward and requires experienced geomorphologists, trained in the recognition and analysis of slope processes. Levels of landslide hazard and risk are expressed using an index that conveys, in a simple and compact format, information on the landslide frequency, the landslide intensity, and the likely damage caused by the expected failure. The methodology was tested in 79 towns, villages, and individual dwellings in the Umbria Region of central Italy.

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Landslide risk assessment and acceptable risk

Cited by 389 publications

References 0 publications

A conceptual model of avalanche hazard

A conceptual model of avalanche hazard

A novel approach to flood risk assessment: the Exposure-Vulnerability matrices

A geomorphological approach to the estimation of landslide hazards and risks in Umbria, Central Italy

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