Landslide susceptibility analysis for the Kerch Peninsula using weights of evidence approach and GIS

Abstract

Landslides are one of the most important problems on Kerch Peninsula. Rapidly increasing anthropogenic pressure, which has been particularly could be seen in recent years, leads to destabilization of slopes and significant economic and social damage. Nowdays, economic activities for the further development of Kerch Peninsula, urbanization and the construction of new infrastructure facilities may lead to destabilization of slopes and activation of landslides. Application of an integrated mathematical model, helped us to reflect the current state of Kerch Peninsula in the context of solving this problem. With the help of field research, we mapped a complex of landslide areas, which made it possible to identify the main types of them occurring here-earth and earthwork slips landslides, and in the coastal zone-landfalls and caving slides, total area of which reaches 87.5 km 2 (7.4% of the research area territory). We chose an optimal method under the given conditions-the weight of evidence. The approach presented in this paper allows us to classify the territory according to the degree of its susceptibility to landslides with rather high accuracy and analyze the existing situation in this area and analyze possible scenarios for its development. We zoned the territory of the Kerch peninsula into 3 classes-stable, unstable and unsusceptible according to the degree of landslide probable occurrences. The susceptibility analysis revealed that the factors causing the activation of landslides on the Kerch Peninsula are the slope steepness from 20 to 40 degrees, the anthropogenic impact, excessive salinity of the soil cover and the lithological composition of the terrain.

Automatic processing of Sentinel-2 image for Kerch peninsula lake areas extraction using QGIS and Python

“…The biggest distance from east to west, from the Akmonai Isthmus to the waters of the Kerch Strait, is about 90 km, and from south to north -up to 54 km. The total area of the peninsula is approximately 3 thousand km 2 [9,10]. The relief of the peninsula can be described as the steppe hills with a division into 2 parts -a gentle southern and western part and hilly northern and eastern [11].…”

“…The relief of the peninsula can be described as the steppe hills with a division into 2 parts -a gentle southern and western part and hilly northern and eastern [11]. Geologically, the Kerch Peninsula belongs to the Kerch-Taman folding, where prevail only sedimentary rocks, the thickness of which reaches more than 5 km [8].…”

“…The Kerch Peninsula is a seismically active zone, the level of which is largely similar to the mountain systems of the Caucasus and the Crimean Mountains [9]. Basically, a high level of seismic activity is observed in the deformations of young geological formations, E3S Web of Conferences 203, 03011 (2020) EBWFF-2020 https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202020303011 areas of mud volcanoes and movements of the Earth's surface.…”

“…The most striking example of such changes is the problem of the Aral Sea. Increasing in level of anthropogenic impact led not only to a water areas decreasing, but also to significant landscape and climatic transformations [8].…”

Spatial analysis of salinity distribution patterns in upper layers of the Black Sea

“…In general, it is the least studied of all the variables that characterize the oceans or climate, mainly due to a lack of historical data. This is primarily due to the fact that until recently, our knowledge of the distribution of salinity in the oceans was based on inconsistent measurements [2,3].…”