Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Based on Ensemble Learning in the Jiuzhaigou Region, Sichuan, China

Abstract

Accurate landslide susceptibility mapping is vital for disaster forecasting and risk management. To address the problem of limited accuracy of individual classifiers and lack of model interpretability in machine learning-based models, a coupled multi-model framework for landslide susceptibility mapping is proposed. Using Jiuzhaigou County, Sichuan Province, as a case study, we developed an evaluation index system incorporating 14 factors. We employed three base models—logistic regression, support vector machine, and Gaussian Naive Bayes—assessed through four ensemble methods: Stacking, Voting, Bagging, and Boosting. The decision mechanisms of these models were explained via a SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis. Results demonstrate that integrating machine learning with ensemble learning and SHAP yields more reliable landslide susceptibility mapping and enhances model interpretability. This approach effectively addresses the challenges of unreliable landslide susceptibility mapping in complex environments.