Large carnivore expansion in Europe is associated with human population density and land cover changes

Abstract

Aim The recent recovery of large carnivores in Europe has been explained as resulting from a decrease in human persecution driven by widespread rural land abandonment, paralleled by forest cover increase and the consequent increase in availability of shelter and prey. We investigated whether land cover and human population density changes are related to the relative probability of occurrence of three European large carnivores: the grey wolf (Canis lupus), the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) and the brown bear (Ursus arctos). Location Europe, west of 64° longitude. Methods We fitted multi‐temporal species distribution models using >50,000 occurrence points with time series of land cover, landscape configuration, protected areas, hunting regulations and human population density covering a 24‐year period (1992–2015). Within the temporal window considered, we then predicted changes in habitat suitability for large carnivores throughout Europe. Results Between 1992 and 2015, the habitat suitability for the three species increased in Eastern Europe, the Balkans, North‐West Iberian Peninsula and Northern Scandinavia, but showed mixed trends in Western and Southern Europe. These trends were primarily associated with increases in forest cover and decreases in human population density, and, additionally, with decreases in the cover of mosaics of cropland and natural vegetation. Main conclusions Recent land cover and human population changes appear to have altered the habitat suitability pattern for large carnivores in Europe, whereas protection level did not play a role. While projected changes largely match the observed recovery of large carnivore populations, we found mismatches with the recent expansion of wolves in Central and Southern Europe, where factors not included in our models may have played a dominant role. This suggests that large carnivores’ co‐existence with humans in European landscapes is not limited by habitat availability, but other factors such as favourable human tolerance and policy.

Students’ Attitudes to and Knowledge of Brown Bears (Ursus arctos L.): Can More Knowledge Reduce Fear and Assist in Conservation Efforts?

“…The most recent population estimate was made in 2018 and based on mathematical modeling. For that year, the maximum yearly abundance was 975 (875-1130) bears [5]. Across Europe, large carnivores such as brown bears are spreading because of increasing forest cover, crop coverage, shrinking human population density and forest fragmentation.…”

The contribution of the European LIFE program to mitigate damages caused by large carnivores in Europe

“…LIFE projects invest considerable resources in supporting wildlife management and conservation actions in Europe, including actions aimed to address human-wildlife conflicts. Our overview revealed considerable bias in the distribution and number of projects targeting large carnivores in certain parts of Europe, which does not reflect current distribution of large carnivores on this continent (Chapron et al, 2014;Cimatti et al, 2021). We observed a clear north-south gradient, with a very small number of projects in northern Europe, although these countries harbor important proportion of entire European populations of large carnivores.…”

Welcoming Wolves? Governing the Return of Large Carnivores in Traditional Pastoral Landscapes

“…We contend that facilitating coexistence with large carnivores in traditional pastoral landscapes can be symbolic of a wider pursuit to achieve sustainable and legitimate conservation governance and rural development programs. Given the continued expansion of large carnivores across Europe (Chapron et al, 2014;Cimatti et al, 2021), more inclusive and innovative approaches are needed to manage these species across human-induced borders, learn about local barriers and opportunities to coexistence, and how to (re)distribute resources to ensure that co-adaptation is possible. Existing knowledge, institutions, and projects that could shorten the transition period for coexistence abound, but more effective methods to identify, learn from, and support them are needed (Bennett et al, 2015;Hovardas et al, 2017).…”

“…Current plans for socio-ecological transitions, such as the EU biodiversity strategy (The European Commission., 2020) and the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (UNEP., 2019), call for new ways of thinking about how humans and wildlife might share space. In Europe, expanding large carnivore populations (Chapron et al, 2014;Cimatti et al, 2021), rural land abandonment (Bürgi et al, 2017), and a growing rewilding movement (Ceausu et al, 2015) have brought human-carnivore relations (HCR) into focus, meaning the multifaceted interactions between humans and large carnivores. In recent decades, European conservation policies have supported the integration of large carnivores within human-dominated landscapes (Boitani and Linnell, 2015;Cretois et al, 2019).…”