Large crop production losses induced by global ozone stress based on interval evaluation

Abstract

Global crop yield loss due to ground-level ozone (O3) concentrations is a major challenge to food security, but a dose-response association is not easy to quantify. Here, we propose using a new metric, O3 sensitivity of crop yield (Yo), to estimate yield loss under different O3 time intervals using four observational databases. The Yo metric shows a non-linear parabola with elevated atmospheric O3 for wheat, maize, rice, soybean, and assorted vegetables. Spatial heterogeneity of yield loss varies as a function of crop type and O3 intervals. Estimates of yield loss from ozone suggest recent losses (2017-2019) may reach as high as 537 million tonnes, with a significant proportion coming with lower (30-40 ppb) exposure (325 million tonnes). Our results suggest that previous research, which only included higher (>40 ppb ozone), may have had grossly underestimated the negative effect of atmospheric O3 on crop production. Suppose these results are endemic to global crop production. In that case, additional research will be necessary to reassess ozone sensitivity and dose-responses, both spatially and temporally, to determine future air pollution impacts.