Large-scale sea ice–Surface temperature variability linked to Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Vaideanu, Petru; Stepanek, Christian; Dima, Mihai; Schrepfer, Jule; Matos, Fernanda; Ionita, Monica; Lohmann, Gerrit

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0290437

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 103 publications

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“…JSBACH serves as a sub-model of ECHAM6, providing interactive vegetation dynamics as well as hydrologic cycles. The coupled model was first introduced in [36], and has been verified in many studies involving paleo and present climates [37][38][39][40].…”

Section: A1 Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Thresholds of accelerated basal melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheet in climate projections

Song,

Scholz,

Knorr

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Basal melting of Antarctic Ice Shelves is thought to be a key process in the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and large-scale ocean circulation. Observations show that most ice shelves in West Antarctica are melting rapidly, while for the two largest ice shelves, the Filchner--Ronne and Ross Ice Shelf (FRIS and RIS), melt rates are still relatively low, implying the potential threat of accelerated mass loss in the future. By prescribing freshwater forcing projected by ice sheet models, previous studies emphasize the essential and complex role of ice-shelf meltwater for future climates, including an abyssal ocean overturning slowdown, sea ice expansion and global warming reduction. However as yet, only very few model approaches have taken an explicit simulation of ice-shelf cavities into account. Here we implement Antarctic ice-shelf cavities into a complex state-of-the-art multi-scale Earth system model to investigate the responses and feedbacks of ice-shelf basal melting in climate projections. We find that a combination of regional hydrography and topography dominantly determines the existence of a tipping point. At this point warm water intrudes the FRIS-cavity intensely, which causes a rapid increase in the melting rate and freshwater release in response to increasing CO2 levels already within this century. In contrast, a more gradual response is simulated for the RIS. However, despite a possible FRIS instability, our results suggest that previous ice sheet modelling and freshwater experiments have overestimated future ice shelf melt. Hence, comprehensive model approaches, including both interactive ice sheets and their cavities, represent an urgent need for an enhanced assessment of the combined effects in climate projections.

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Section: A1 Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Thresholds of accelerated basal melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheet in climate projections

Song,

Scholz,

Knorr

et al. 2023

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…The dominant mode of multidecadal variability in the climate system is the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO, (Enfield et al, 2001)). In its positive phase, the AMO is characterized by warmer temperature anomalies over the North Atlantic (Enfield et al, 2001;Drinkwater et al, 2014;Knight et al, 2006), significantly affecting the Northern Hemisphere's 155 climate (Dima and Lohmann, 2007), including precipitation (Vaideanu et al, 2018), land temperature (Knight et al, 2005;Ionita et al, 2013) or sea-ice (Vaideanu et al, 2023). Therefore, variations in the sign and magnitude of the AMO could be responsible for modulating the summer days over Romania.…”

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confidence: 99%

Comment on egusphere-2024-1207

Yang

2024

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confidence: 99%

Examining the Eastern European heatwave of 2023 from a long-term perspective: the role of natural variability vs. anthropogenic factors

Ionita,

Vaideanu,

Antonescu

et al. 2024

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Abstract. Amidst unprecedent rising global temperatures, this study investigates the historical context of heatwave (HW) events in Eastern Europe. The record-breaking 2023 summer, featuring a heatwave lasting for 19 days in the south-eastern part of Romania, extending up to Ukraine, necessitates a deeper understanding of past extreme events. Utilizing statistical methods on long-term station data spanning from 1885 to 2023, we aim to detect and analyze historical heatwaves, particularly focusing on events predating 1960. This extended timeframe allows for a more comprehensive assessment of noteworthy extremes compared to recent decades. Our analysis identifies two critical periods with increased heatwave frequency and intensity: 1920–1965 and 1980–2023, respectively, highlighting the most extreme events in August 1946, August 1952, July 2012, June 2019, and August 2023. Furthermore, reanalysis data shows that historical heatwaves, similar to the 2023 event, were associated with large-scale European heat extremes linked to high-pressure systems and they were accompanied by extreme drought, thus leading to compound extreme events. We find that while a clear trend emerges towards more frequent HWs from the 1980s onward, the analysis also uncovers substantial heatwave activity on daily timescales throughout the 1885–1960 period. Moreover, we highlight the intertwined impacts of climate change and multidecadal internal variability on heatwave patterns, with evidence suggesting that both contribute to the increasing frequency and intensity of these extreme events. Our research highlights the value of extending the historical record for a more nuanced understanding of heatwave behavior and suggests that extreme heat events, comparable to those experienced in recent decades, have occurred throughout the analyzed period.

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Large-scale sea ice–Surface temperature variability linked to Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Cited by 5 publications

References 103 publications

Thresholds of accelerated basal melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheet in climate projections

Thresholds of accelerated basal melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheet in climate projections

Comment on egusphere-2024-1207

Examining the Eastern European heatwave of 2023 from a long-term perspective: the role of natural variability vs. anthropogenic factors

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