Large size of the Australian Indigenous population prior to its massive decline following European invasion

Abstract

Estimating the size of Indigenous populations in Australia prior to European colonial invasion is essential to truth-telling and reconciliation. Robust estimates of the population dynamics of pre-colonial Indigenous Australians are poor due to lethal diseases, frontier violence, and no systematic censuses. We review ethnographic observations, archaeological and genetic reconstructions, and modelled carrying capacity, to infer Indigenous population size prior to colonial invasion. This allows an estimate of the number of excess deaths in post-colonial times. Congruency of the modelled (not historical accounts) estimates suggests a bootstrapped pre-colonial median of 2.51 million, or 0.33 people km-2. For a median pre-colonial population of 2.51 million, ~ 32,500 excess deaths year-1 (2.39 million deaths in total) would have had to occur over the late 18th and early 19th Centuries from colonial invasion-related mortality. These findings highlight the major impacts of invasion experienced by Indigenous Australians, and demonstrate their survival, resilience, and recovery over the past 235 years.