Large wildfire trends in the western United States, 1984–2011

Dennison, Philip E.; Brewer, Simon; Arnold, James D.; Moritz, Max A.

doi:10.1002/2014gl059576

Cited by 1,111 publications

(871 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…The Theil-Sen slope estimate is the median of all slopes between each set of data points and is minimally affected by the influence of outliers [36]. Thus, the test is particularly suitable when working with datasets that are characterized by considerable interannual variability such as extreme fire years (e.g., [23]). We also tested for possible temporal autocorrelation of the wildfire data using the Durbin-Watson test [37] and determined that residuals were not autocorrelated for either the GACC regions or the Combined region.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatio-Temporal Linkages between Declining Arctic Sea-Ice Extent and Increasing Wildfire Activity in the Western United States

Knapp

Soulé

2017

Forests

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Abstract:We examined relationships between monthly Arctic sea-ice extent (ASIE) and annual wildfire activity for seven regions in the western United States during 1980-2015 to determine if spatio-temporal linkages exist between ASIE, upper-level flow, and surface climatic conditions conducive to western U.S. wildfire activity. Winter ASIE had significant (p < 0.05) negative relationships with annual wildfire area burned (r s = −0.391 − −0.683), with the strongest relationship occurring in the Northern Rockies. We explored spatial linkages between ASIE and 300-hPa flow (+), temperature (+), precipitation (−), and soil moisture (+) using monthly values of ASIE and gridded values for the climatic parameters. Relationships were best expressed between January ASIE and conditions in the current-year July over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Reduced wintertime ASIE is teleconnected with increased ridging in summertime 300-hPa flow over the western U.S., resulting in warmer and drier conditions during peak fire season. Our findings suggest that reductions in ASIE are one of the driving forces behind the increasing annual trend (>36,000 ha) in area burned in the western U.S. since 1980.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In summary, atmospheric perturbations associated with reduced ASIE tend to promote climatic extremes associated with enhanced variance of upper-level flow patterns. In western North America, persistent warm-season ridging results in a combination of extreme heat and drought, factors known to promote wildfire activity [21][22][23].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio-Temporal Linkages between Declining Arctic Sea-Ice Extent and Increasing Wildfire Activity in the Western United States

Knapp

Soulé

2017

Forests

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“…Increased fire activity across western US forests has coincided with climatic conditions more conducive to wildfire (2)(3)(4)8). The strong interannual correlation between forest fire activity and fire-season fuel aridity, as well as observed increases in vapor pressure deficit (VPD) (9), fire danger indices (10), and climatic water deficit (CWD) (11) over the past several decades, present a compelling argument that climate change has contributed to the recent increases in fire activity.…”

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confidence: 99%

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

Abatzoglou

Williams

2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

2,123

1,435

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Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000-2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.wildfire | climate change | attribution | forests W idespread increases in fire activity, including area burned (1, 2), number of large fires (3), and fire-season length (4, 5), have been documented across the western United States (US) and in other temperate and high-latitude ecosystems over the past half century (6, 7). Increased fire activity across western US forests has coincided with climatic conditions more conducive to wildfire (2-4, 8). The strong interannual correlation between forest fire activity and fire-season fuel aridity, as well as observed increases in vapor pressure deficit (VPD) (9), fire danger indices (10), and climatic water deficit (CWD) (11) over the past several decades, present a compelling argument that climate change has contributed to the recent increases in fire activity. Previous studies have implicated anthropogenic climate change (ACC) as a contributor to observed and projected increases in fire activity globally and in the western United States (12-19), yet no studies have quantified the degree to which ACC has contributed to observed increases in fire activity in western US forests.Changes in fire activity due to climate, and ACC therein, are modulated by the co-occurrence of changes in land management and human activity that influence fuels, ignition, and suppression. The legacy of twentieth century fire suppression across western continental US forests contributed to increased fuel loads and fire potential in many locations (20,21), ...

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“…Overall, this tendency will lead to increasing climatic fire risk. Widespread increases in fire activity, including the areas that are burned [2,3], number of large fires [4,5], and fire season length [6,7], have been apparent worldwide over the past half century [8,9]. However, this trend is also influenced by fuel availability, which is determined by both the quantity of fuel and climate-driven fuel moisture [1,4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Post-Fire Restoration Plan for Sustainable Forest Management in South Korea

Ryu

Choi

Lim

et al. 2017

Forests

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Abstract:This review was to determine a standard post-fire restoration strategy for use in South Korea according to the magnitude of the damage and the condition of the affected site. The government has strongly enforced reforestation in deforested areas as well as fire prevention and suppression since the 1960s. These efforts have successfully recovered dense even-aged forests over the last five decades. However, high fuel loading and the homogeneous structure have made forests vulnerable to large fires. In recent years, large forest fires have occurred in the eastern coastal region of Korea. Forest fires can significantly influence the economic and social activities of the residents of such affected forest regions. Burned areas may require urgent and long-term restoration strategies, depending on the condition of the affected site. Erosion control is the most important component of an urgent restoration and should be completed before a rainy season to prevent secondary damage such as landslides and sediment runoff in burned areas. Long-term restoration is necessary to renew forest functions such as timber production, water conservation, ecosystem conservation, and recreation for residents. Sound restoration for burned areas is critical for restoring healthy ecological functions of forests and providing economic incentives to local residents.

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Large wildfire trends in the western United States, 1984–2011

Cited by 1,111 publications

References 30 publications

Spatio-Temporal Linkages between Declining Arctic Sea-Ice Extent and Increasing Wildfire Activity in the Western United States

Spatio-Temporal Linkages between Declining Arctic Sea-Ice Extent and Increasing Wildfire Activity in the Western United States

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

Post-Fire Restoration Plan for Sustainable Forest Management in South Korea

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