Larger Drought and Flood Hazards and Adverse Impacts on Population and Economic Productivity Under 2.0 than 1.5°C Warming

Zhai, Runsheng; Tao, Fulu; Lall, Upmanu; Fu, Bojie; Elliott, Joshua; Jägermeyr, Jonas

doi:10.1029/2019ef001398

Cited by 37 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 83 publications

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“…In addition, the runoff reduction in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin is also noticed by Zhai et al in their ensemble projection of runoff [62]. Extreme high and low runoff are often related to flood and drought hazards [63], and the runoff projection developed in this study could help identify regions vulnerable to increased flood and drought risks, and thus support flood mitigation and water resource management [64].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 68%

Long-Term Projection of Water Cycle Changes over China Using RegCM

et al. 2021

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The global water cycle is becoming more intense in a warming climate, leading to extreme rainstorms and floods. In addition, the delicate balance of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff affects the variations in soil moisture, which is of vital importance to agriculture. A systematic examination of climate change impacts on these variables may help provide scientific foundations for the design of relevant adaptation and mitigation measures. In this study, long-term variations in the water cycle over China are explored using the Regional Climate Model system (RegCM) developed by the International Centre for Theoretical Physics. Model performance is validated through comparing the simulation results with remote sensing data and gridded observations. The results show that RegCM can reasonably capture the spatial and seasonal variations in three dominant variables for the water cycle (i.e., precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff). Long-term projections of these three variables are developed by driving RegCM with boundary conditions of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results show that increased annual average precipitation and evapotranspiration can be found in most parts of the domain, while a smaller part of the domain is projected with increased runoff. Statistically significant increasing trends (at a significant level of 0.05) can be detected for annual precipitation and evapotranspiration, which are 0.02 and 0.01 mm/day per decade, respectively, under RCP4.5 and are both 0.03 mm/day per decade under RCP8.5. There is no significant trend in future annual runoff anomalies. The variations in the three variables mainly occur in the wet season, in which precipitation and evapotranspiration increase and runoff decreases. The projected changes in precipitation minus evapotranspiration are larger than those in runoff, implying a possible decrease in soil moisture.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 68%

Long-Term Projection of Water Cycle Changes over China Using RegCM

et al. 2021

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“…Streamflow characteristics, such as the magnitude, frequency, and seasonality, can be affected by human‐induced land use and climate change that both intensify the global hydrologic cycle (Bosmans et al., 2017; Winsemius et al., 2016). Stemming from observation‐based studies and climate model projections, analyses of the sign and magnitude of peak annual streamflow changes in the historical period and the future remain controversial (Greve et al., 2018; Gudmundsson et al., 2019; Hirsch & Ryberg, 2012; Lins & Slack, 2005; Mallakpour & Villarini, 2015; Milly et al., 2005; Yang et al., 2017; Zhai et al., 2020). Nonetheless, there is high confidence that the frequency of extreme floods associated with annual streamflow maxima has increased over most regions, and this trend is likely to continue in the future (Arnell & Gosling, 2016; Hirabayashi et al., 2013; Hirsch & Archfield, 2015; Milly et al., 2002; Slater & Villarini, 2016; Swain et al., 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Peak Runoff Timing Is Linked to Global Warming Trajectories

Ivanov

et al. 2021

Earth's Future

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Climate multi-model ensemble projects change of peak annual runoff timing over the continental U.S. during the 21st century • Spatial patterns of peak runoff timing earlier onset as well as delay are more pronounced for higher future greenhouse concentrations• Springtime shifts in the dates of maximum snow accumulation and soil moisture wetness are associated with changes in peak annual runoff timing Accepted ArticleThis article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review but has not been through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination and proofreading process, which may lead to differences between this version and the Version of Record. Please cite this article as

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“…Finally, the analysis in this study has been performed for the observed climate variability in the past and the impact of climate change is not assessed. Climate change is not only expected to intensify droughts in future (Wan et al, 2018; Zhai et al, 2020) but is also likely to contribute to changes in both the annual mean and seasonality of precipitation and evapotranspiration regimes in the future (Konapala et al, 2020), which can result in changes in regional drought propagation mechanisms. Therefore, future studies can investigate how the integrated use of surface and groundwater, as suggested in this study, can mitigate the effects of climate change.…”

Section: Conclusion and Future Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Droughts on Water Supply in U.S. Watersheds: The Role of Renewable Surface and Groundwater Resources

Apurv

Cai

2020

Earth's Future

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We use a simplified water supply system model based on the water availability assessment via the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model to analyze water supply droughts (WSDs), which are periods with deficient water supply. The model is applied to 27 representative watersheds of the contiguous U.S. to explore how different management strategies can be more effective in mitigating WSDs in watersheds with different drought propagation mechanisms. We find that water supply deficits during droughts (WSDDs) are generally the highest in the Great Plains watersheds, followed by the western U.S. watersheds, and lowest in the eastern U.S. watersheds. We show that different measures can be adopted to mitigate WSDs in different regions. Specifically, in the western U.S. watersheds, the conjunctive use of surface and groundwater can reduce WSDD, that is, increasing surface water utilization and using groundwater recharged through winter precipitation to supplement surface water supply during droughts. In the Great Plains region, water demands need to be brought down to sustainable levels; meanwhile switching from groundwater to surface water supply can significantly reduce WSDD as the alluvial aquifers in this region provide a stable baseflow, which can act as a steady source of water supply during droughts. In the eastern U.S. watersheds, the depletion of limited storage capacity during droughts can lead to WSDD for short periods of time, which highlights the need for expansion of storage capacity in this region.

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Larger Drought and Flood Hazards and Adverse Impacts on Population and Economic Productivity Under 2.0 than 1.5°C Warming

Cited by 37 publications

References 83 publications

Long-Term Projection of Water Cycle Changes over China Using RegCM

Long-Term Projection of Water Cycle Changes over China Using RegCM

Peak Runoff Timing Is Linked to Global Warming Trajectories

Impact of Droughts on Water Supply in U.S. Watersheds: The Role of Renewable Surface and Groundwater Resources

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