Larger Spatial Footprint of Wintertime Total Precipitation Extremes in a Warmer Climate

Bevacqua, Emanuele; Shepherd, T. G.; Watson, P.A.; Sparrow, Sarah; Wallom, David; Mitchell, Dann

doi:10.1029/2020gl091990

Cited by 34 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…(2018a, 2018b) who varied the parametrized non‐orographic gravity wave drag strength in the ECMWF model. Furthermore, a dependence between tropospheric circulation anomaly and precipitation anomaly has been reported (Zappa et al ., 2015; Bevacqua et al ., 2021), consistent with our results.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 93%

The role of the timing of sudden stratospheric warmings for precipitation and temperature anomalies in Europe

Monnin

Kretschmer

Polichtchouk

2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex (SPV), a band of fast westerly winds over the Pole extending from approximately 10 to 50 km altitude, is a key driver of European winter weather. Extremely weak polar vortex states, so called sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), are on average followed by dry and cold weather in Northern Europe, as well as wetter weather in Southern Europe. However, the surface response of SSWs varies greatly between events, and it is not well understood which factors modulate this difference. Here, we address the role of the timing of SSWs within the cold season (December–March) for the temperature and precipitation response in Europe. Given the limited sample size of SSWs in the observations, hindcasts of the seasonal forecasting model SEAS5 from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts are analysed. First, we evaluate key characteristics of stratosphere–troposphere coupling in SEAS5 against reanalysis data and find them to be reasonably well captured by the model, justifying our approach. We then show that in SEAS5, early winter (December and January) SSWs are followed by more pronounced surface impacts compared to late winter (February and March) SSWs. For example, in Scotland, the low precipitation anomalies are roughly twice as severe after early winter SSWs than after late winter SSWs. The difference in the response cannot be explained by more downward propagating SSWs in early winter, or by different monthly precipitation climatologies. Instead, we demonstrate that the differences result from stronger SPV anomalies associated with early winter SSWs. This is a statistical artefact introduced through the commonly used SSW event definition, which involves an absolute threshold, and, therefore, leads to stronger SPV anomalies during early winter SSWs when the stratospheric mean state is stronger. Our study highlights the sensitivity of surface impacts to SSW event definition.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 93%

The role of the timing of sudden stratospheric warmings for precipitation and temperature anomalies in Europe

Monnin

Kretschmer

Polichtchouk

2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…For example, composites would allow for identifying typical atmospheric configurations associated with concurrent low agricultural production across the main "breadbasket" regions worldwide (Gaupp et al, 2019;Kornhuber et al, 2019). Similar analyses would help to deepen the understanding of extreme impacts from spatially dependent river floods (Berghuijs et al, 2019;Jongman et al, 2014;Kemter et al, 2020), which may intensify in the future due to the larger spatial-footprints of rainfall extremes (Bevacqua et al, 2021), or continental scale renewable energy shortages driven by large scale high pressure systems (Van der Wiel, Stoop, et al, 2019). At the regional scale, relevant events include widespread storm surges (Enríquez et al, 2020) and multiple wildfires (Portier et al, 2017) such as those in California in 2017 (Balch et al, 2020), which can deplete response capacity, resulting in extreme losses.…”

Section: Link To Other Spatially Compounding Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Guidelines for Studying Diverse Types of Compound Weather and Climate Events

et al. 2021

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Compound weather and climate events are combinations of climate drivers and/or hazards that contribute to societal or environmental risk. Studying compound events often requires a multidisciplinary approach combining domain knowledge of the underlying processes with, for example, statistical methods and climate model outputs. Recently, to aid the development of research on compound events, four compound event types were introduced, namely (a) preconditioned, (b) multivariate, (c) temporally compounding, and (d) spatially compounding events. However, guidelines on how to study these types of events are still lacking. Here, we consider four case studies, each associated with a specific event type and a research question, to illustrate how the key elements of compound events (e.g., analytical tools and relevant physical effects) can be identified. These case studies show that (a) impacts on crops from hot and dry summers can be exacerbated by preconditioning effects of dry and bright springs. (b) Assessing compound coastal flooding in Perth (Australia) requires considering the dynamics of a non-stationary multivariate process. For instance, future mean sea-level rise will lead to the emergence of concurrent coastal and fluvial extremes, enhancing compound flooding risk. (c) In Portugal, deeplandslides are often caused by temporal clusters of moderate precipitation events. Finally, (d) crop yield failures in France and Germany are strongly correlated, threatening European food security through spatially compounding effects. These analyses allow for identifying general recommendations for studying compound events. Overall, our insights can serve as a blueprint for compound event analysis across disciplines and sectors.Plain Language Summary Many societal and environmental impacts from events such as droughts and storms arise from a combination of weather and climate factors referred to as a compound event. Considering the complex nature of these high-impact events is crucial for an accurate assessment of climate-related risk, for example to develop adaptation and emergency preparedness strategies. However, compound event research has emerged only recently, therefore our ability to analyze these events is still BEVACQUA ET AL.

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“…The soil moisture memory argument is also less valid for clustered extremes, since two extreme events may occur over different parts of the catchment. However, precipitation extremes are expected to have a larger spatial footprint in a warmer climate (Bevacqua et al, 2021b), such that also larger catchments might experience very fast response times in the future.…”

Section: Catchment Area and Response Timescalementioning

confidence: 99%

On the links between sub-seasonal clustering of extreme precipitation and high discharge in Switzerland and Europe

Tuel

Schaefli

Zscheischler

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. River discharge is impacted by the sub-seasonal (weekly to monthly) temporal structure of precipitation. One example is the successive occurrence of extreme precipitation events over sub-seasonal timescales, referred to as temporal clustering. Its potential effects on discharge have received little attention. Here, we address this question by analysing discharge observations following extreme precipitation events either clustered in time or occurring in isolation. We rely on two sets of precipitation and discharge data, one centered on Switzerland and the other over Europe. We identify "clustered" extreme precipitation events based on the previous occurrence of another extreme precipitation within a given time window. We find that clustered events are generally followed by a more prolonged discharge response with a larger amplitude. The probability of exceeding the 95th discharge percentile in the five days following an extreme precipitation event is in particular up to twice as high for situations where another extreme precipitation event occurred in the preceding week compared to isolated extreme precipitation events. The influence of temporal clustering decreases as the clustering window increases; beyond 6–8 weeks the difference with non-clustered events is negligible. Catchment area, streamflow regime and precipitation magnitude also modulate the response. The impact of clustering is generally smaller in snow-dominated and large catchments. Additionally, particularly persistent periods of high discharge tend to occur in conjunction with temporal clusters of precipitation extremes.

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Larger Spatial Footprint of Wintertime Total Precipitation Extremes in a Warmer Climate

Cited by 34 publications

References 60 publications

The role of the timing of sudden stratospheric warmings for precipitation and temperature anomalies in Europe

The role of the timing of sudden stratospheric warmings for precipitation and temperature anomalies in Europe

Guidelines for Studying Diverse Types of Compound Weather and Climate Events

On the links between sub-seasonal clustering of extreme precipitation and high discharge in Switzerland and Europe

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