Larrikin youth: Crime and Queensland's Earning or Learning reform

Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of the introduction of an Earning or Learning reform on youth crime in Queensland, Australia. The 2006 reform increased learning and reduced earning as school participation rose post-reform, while teen employment fell. Empirical analysis of detailed administrative data reveals that criminal offending fell significantly after enactment of the reform. For males, violent, property and drug crime all declined, while the main effect for females was a significant fall in property crime. The property and drug crime falls are underpinned by a significant incapacitation effect, with some evidence of a persistent crime reduction for young men and women at later ages. Crime reduction is concentrated in significant falls in the likelihood of ever offending by marginal individuals, rather than lower criminality among recalcitrant persistent offenders.

Welfare Activation and Youth Crime

“…First, there could be a direct incapacitation effect arising from the simple fact that when youth are kept occupied in activation or in school, there is less time and opportunity left for committing crime; see, e.g., Jacob and Lefgren (2003), Luallen (2006), Anderson (2014), and Fallesen et al (2014) for studies of contemporaneous associations between schooling and crime. Second, to the extent that activation boosts human capital and improves future economic prospects, and perhaps installs basic social norms, it also raises moral or economic costs of crime (Lochner, 2004), consistent with mounting evidence on the effects of education on crime drawing on state variation in school leaving age (e.g., Lochner and Moretti, 2004;Beatton et al, 2018;Bell et al, 2016) or compulsory schooling reforms (e.g., Hjalmarsson et al, 2015).…”

Welfare Activation and Youth Crime

“…First, there could be a direct incapacitation effect arising from the simple fact that when youth are kept occupied in activation or in school, there is less time and opportunity left for committing crime (see, Jacob & Lefgren, 2003;Luallen, 2006;and Fallesen et al, 2014, for studies of contemporaneous associations between schooling and crime). Second, to the extent that activation boosts human capital and improves future economic prospects, and perhaps installs basic social norms, it also raises the moral or economic costs of crime (Lochner, 2004), consistent with mounting evidence on the effects of education on crime drawing on state variation in school leaving age (Lochner & Moretti, 2004;Beatton et al, 2018;Bell Costa, & Machin, 2016) or compulsory schooling reforms (Hjalmarsson, Holmlund, & Lindquist, 2015). While incapacitation effects take place at the time of activation, human capital effects will materialize in terms of educational qualifications and favorable long-term outcomes.…”

Pushed out of the education system: using a natural experiment to evaluate consequences for boys

“…Second, the vast majority of studies applying experimental designs focus on the effects of compulsory schooling (e.g., Beatton et al 2018;Hjalmarsson et al 2015;Lochner and Moretti 2004;Machin et al 2011). More recently, a new literature exploiting natural experiments to estimate the effects of upper secondary education on crime has emerged, and the results obtained support that upper secondary education reduces crime among men (e.g., Åslund et al 2018).…”