We report on precise measurements of absolute nonlinear ionization probabilities obtained by exposing optically trapped ultracold rubidium atoms to the field of an ultrashort laser pulse in the intensity range of 1 × 10 11 to 4 × 10 13 W/cm 2 . The experimental data are in perfect agreement with ab-initio theory, based on solving the time-dependent Schrödinger equation without any free parameters. Ultracold targets allow to retrieve absolute probabilities since ionized atoms become apparent as a local vacancy imprinted into the target density, which is recorded simultaneously. We study the strong-field response of 87 Rb atoms at two different wavelengths representing non-resonant and resonant processes in the demanding regime where the Keldysh parameter is close to unity.