In this paper, a robust stable three-dimensional (3D) seam tracking method is investigate based on the Kalman filter (KF) and machine learning during the multipass gas metal arc welding process with a T-joint of 60 mm thickness. The laser vision sensor is used to profile the weld seam, and with the reference image captured before arcing a scheme is proposed to extract the variable weld seam profiles (WSPs) using scale-invariant feature transform and the clustering algorithm. An effective slope mutation detection method is presented to identify the feature points of the extracted WSP, namely the candidate welding positions. In order to lower the impact of fake welding positions on seam tracking, a Bayesian Network model is first built to implement fault detection and diagnosis for the visual feature measurement process using the involved process parameters and the trigger rule. A KF, as an estimator, is then established to further stabilize the tracking process combing with a self determination algorithm of the measurement result. With the visual calibration technology, 3D seam tracking is realized. Seam tracking results show that the proposed method overcomes the tremor of the tracking position and multiple fake candidate welding positions on tracking accuracy, and the tracking accuracy is 0.6 mm. This method provides potential industrial application value for industrial manufacturing with large-scale components.