Last millennium hurricane activity linked to endogenous climate variability

Abstract

Despite increased Atlantic hurricane risk, projected trends in hurricane frequency in the warming climate are still highly uncertain, mainly due to short instrumental record that limits our understanding of hurricane activity and its relationship to climate. Here we extend the record to the last millennium using two independent estimates: a reconstruction from sedimentary paleohurricane records and a statistical model of hurricane activity using sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We find statistically significant agreement between the two estimates and the late 20th century hurricane frequency is within the range seen over the past millennium. Numerical simulations using a hurricane-permitting climate model suggest that hurricane activity was likely driven by endogenous climate variability and linked to anomalous SSTs of warm Atlantic and cold Pacific. Volcanic eruptions can induce peaks in hurricane activity, but such peaks would likely be too weak to be detected in the proxy record due to large endogenous variability.

Northeastern Caribbean Rainfall Variability Linked to Solar and Volcanic Forcing

“…This is also seen in the wavelet coherence, with a clear co-phase and a shift in periodicity of the two parameters (Figure S4 in Supporting Information S1), as well as spatial correlation with basin wide SSTs (Figure S5 in Supporting Information S1). Prior to the twentieth century, this observation is supported by similar variations of the speleothem proxies and tropical Atlantic SSTsensitive tropical coral δ 18 O data (Figure 2f, Kilbourne et al, 2008Kilbourne et al, , 2014, reconstructed SSTAs from a sclerosponge-based record from the Bahamas (Figure 2e, Waite et al, 2020), as well as SST-related cyclogenesis (Figure 3b, Yang et al, 2024). This shows that the multidecadal wet phases in Puerto Rico were associated with relatively warm SSTs and vice versa (Figure 2) confirming that Atlantic SST changes have been a dominant precursor of Puerto Rican precipitation since c. 1500 AD.…”

“…Accordingly, the sharp transitions detected in the PR-LA-C2 δ 18 O record may reflect gradual SST warmings inducing sharp transitions in the frequency and intensity of deep convection and cyclogenesis once such a threshold is surpassed, hence rapidly enhancing the total amount of rainfall in the catchment of the cave. This is supported by the similarity of the Larga cave speleothem record with the statistical SST-based reconstruction of hurricane activity by Yang et al (2024). However, another plausible explanation for this threshold behavior could be site-specific, and related to non-linear karst hydrological effects, such as changes in the contribution from different flow paths and reservoirs (Treble et al, 2022, see Section 3.1.2).…”

“…Warmer surface temperatures of the tropical Atlantic Ocean sustain enhanced convection in the moisture source locations of Puerto Rican precipitation, and hence are interpreted to cause more rainfall at the site, in particular during the wet summer season (Stephenson et al, 2014;Wang et al, 2006;Yang et al, 2024). Correlation analysis confirms that rainfall amount in Puerto Rico is linked to SST anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical Atlantic with r = 0.48 (p < 0.01) (Figures S3 to S5 in Supporting Information S1).…”

“…Hence, the proposed relation between volcanic eruptions, AMV, and tropical precipitation over periods of more than a few centuries is uncertain because of the limited temporal coverage of these studies considering the known nonstationarity of teleconnections and dependency of responses on initial conditions and mean climate state (e.g., Swingedouw et al, 2015;Zanchettin et al, 2013). Accordingly, the reconstructed Caribbean SST variability during the past 600 years from Lee Stocking Island, Bahamas, entails periods when the AMV signal can be traced back to volcanic activity and periods when it was incoherent with external forcing, thereby suggesting predominance of intrinsic (or endogeneous) climate variability (Waite et al, 2020;Yang et al, 2024).…”

“…In this respect, evidence of a dominant influence of natural forcing, that is, solar activity and energetic volcanic eruptions, on Caribbean multidecadal to centennial SSTs and hydroclimate changes has been found by a number of studies (Black et al, 1999;Burn & Palmer, 2014;Haase-Schramm et al, 2003;Hodell et al, 2001;Pollock et al, 2016;Ridley et al, 2015;Smirnov et al, 2017;Waite et al, 2020;Warken et al, 2021;Winter et al, 2015;Yang et al, 2024). For example, a reconstruction of Mesoamerican precipitation based on a speleothem record from the Yucatán Peninsula revealed a strong association between the occurrence of multidecadal drying phases during the past three centuries and clusters of strong tropical volcanic eruptions (Winter et al, 2015).…”