Late-Action Effect: Heightened Counterfactual Potency and Perceived Outcome Reversibility Make Actions Closer to a Definitive Outcome Seem More Impactful

Abstract

We report a consistent bias in the evaluation of actions: later actions – specifically, actions that are closer to a final, positive outcome - are preferred and valued more than earlier ones. This bias extends to different domains, from sports to business to academics. In eight experiments (total n = 4310, three pre-registered, with American and British participants, using both within-subjects and between-subjects experimental designs), we show that people mistakenly believe that later actions affect an outcome more than earlier, objectively more impactful actions. We identify two mediators. The first is a heightened tendency to imagine negative alternative scenarios when the action is closer to an outcome. The second is perceived outcome reversibility – lower for later actions, when there is less time for the provisional outcome to change, and attenuated when the action produces no change in total outcome. The effect is mitigated if people imagine counterfactual outcomes (consistent with a counterfactual thinking mediation), and if the outcome is revealed to be negative. We discuss theoretical implications for perceived impact, timing and causality attributions, as well as future research directions for goal-gradient and procrastination.