Late Holocene droughts in the Fertile Crescent recorded in a speleothem from northern Iraq

Flohr, Pascal; Fleitmann, Dominik; Zorita, Eduardo; Sadekov, Aleksey; Cheng, Hai; Bosomworth, Matt; Edwards, Lawrence R.; Matthews, Wendy; Matthews, Roger

doi:10.1002/2016gl071786

Cited by 46 publications

(77 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…However, pollenbased reconstructions of summer (JJA) and winter (NDJ) rainfall in Lebanon (e.g., While there is fairly consistent evidence for substantial increase in precipitation during the early to mid-Holocene in the Middle East, it remains uncertain whether seasonality (winter-spring precipitation versus summer drought) was higher or lower during this period. The presence of annual layers in stalagmite SHC-02 suggest a highly seasonal climate with one rainy season, which is supported by the occurrence of annual growth bands in several stalagmites from the Middle East (e.g., Fleitmann et al, 2004;Fleitmann et al, 2003;Cheng et al, 2009;Flohr et al, 2017). There is, thus, clear evidence in northern Iraq for a highly-seasonal climate between at least 8025 (6075 BCE) ± 38 and 6977 (5027 BCE) ± 219 years BP.…”

Section: Paleoclimate and Other Proxy Comparisonsmentioning

confidence: 80%

“…Based on previously published speleothem records from the Middle East (BarMatthews et al, 2003;Göktürk et al, 2011;Cheng et al, 2015;Jex et al, 2011;Flohr et al, 2017), the amount and seasonality of precipitation and source of moisture (e.g., BarMatthews et al, 2003;Badertscher et al, 2011) appear to be the dominant controls for speleothem calcite …”

Section: Speleothem Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, the wider region contains abundant caves that contain speleothems (stalagmites and flowstones), enabling the obtainment of detailed climatic data on the region's ancient rainfall patterns. Only recently have speleothem data been published for this part of the Middle East (e.g., Flohr et al, 2017). Relatively limited data are also published on the regions phytoliths and sedimentary results (e.g., Marsh and Altaweel, In Press).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Oxygen ( 18 O) and carbon ( 13 C) isotopes are the most commonly used climate proxies in speleothems, but  18 O and  13 C calcite values can be influenced by a variety of climatic and environmental effects (e.g., air temperature, rainfall amount, seasonality, moisture source, evaporation, and cave air temperature; summarized in Lachniet, 2009 (Bar-Matthews et al, 2003;Cheng et al, 2015;Flohr et al, 2017).…”

Section: Palaeoclimate Proxiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mid- to late-Holocene archaeology, environment and climate in the northeast Kurdistan region of Iraq

et al. 2018

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This work presents new data from phytolith and speleothem analyses that cover the middle to late Holocene from northeastern Iraq in the Kurdistan region. Coupling these data with previous work, we demonstrate how the region’s environment and climate developed during a time when agriculture became not only established but settlements started to transform into larger urban areas. Results demonstrate a wetter phase during the middle Holocene relative to the present period; a highly seasonal climate with one rainy season is also suggested between 8025 ± 38 and 6977 ± 219 BP. Phytoliths not only suggest a relatively wet environment but they also indicate a diversity of plants used for settlement activity. Sedimentary results complement the indication of a relatively wetter middle Holocene. Archaeologically, terraced construction found in Gurga Chiya and the presence of drought tolerant crops suggest adaptation to stronger, seasonal rains and seasonal droughts in the middle Holocene. Sedimentary, phytolith, and speleothem results suggest relatively drier late-Holocene conditions, although the region continued to be conducive for rainfed agriculture.

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Section: Paleoclimate and Other Proxy Comparisonsmentioning

confidence: 80%

Section: Speleothem Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Palaeoclimate Proxiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mid- to late-Holocene archaeology, environment and climate in the northeast Kurdistan region of Iraq

et al. 2018

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“…Stalagmite-based paleoclimate records typically resolve millennial-to orbital-scale variations in climate at a given site, owing to their slow and often steady growth averaging 2-20 µm yr −1 over many tens of millennia. Currently, numerous absolutely dated, well-replicated stalagmite δ 18 O records with decadal to centennial resolution exist from South America (Cruz et al, 2005;Wang et al, 2007), the western Pacific (Partin et al, 2007;Griffiths et al, 2009Griffiths et al, , 2010Meckler et al, 2012;Carolin et al, 2013;Griffiths et al, 2016), China (Wang et al, 2001;Zhang et al, 2008;Cheng et al, 2016a), and the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (Bar-Matthews et al, 1997;Bar-Matthews et al, 1999;Fleitmann et al, 2007Fleitmann et al, , 2009Cheng et al, 2015;Flohr et al, 2017).…”

Section: Speleothemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era

Smerdon¹,

Luterbacher²,

Phipps³

et al. 2017

Clim. Past

105

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Abstract. Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited because of a paucity of modern instrumental observations that are distributed unevenly across the globe and only span parts of the 20th and 21st centuries. Such data coverage is insufficient for characterizing hydroclimate and its associated dynamics because of its multidecadal to centennial variability and highly regionalized spatial signature. High-resolution (seasonal to decadal) hydroclimatic proxies that span all or parts of the Common Era (CE) and paleoclimate simulations from climate models are therefore important tools for augmenting our understanding of hydroclimate variability. In particular, the comparison of the two sources of information is critical for addressing the uncertainties and limitations of both while enriching each of their interpretations. We review the principal proxy data available for hydroclimatic reconstructions over the CE and highlight the contemporary understanding of how these proxies are interpreted as hydroclimate indicators. We also review the available last-millennium simulations from fully coupled climate models and discuss several outstanding challenges associated with simulating hydroclimate variability and change over the CE. A specific review of simulated hydroclimatic changes forced by volcanic events is provided, as is a discussion of expected improvements in estimated radiative forcings, models, and their implementation in the future. Our review of hydroclimatic proxies and last-millennium model simulations is used as the basis for articulating a variety of considerations and best practices for how to perform proxy-model comparisons of CE hydroclimate. This discussion provides a framework for how best to evaluate hydroclimate variability and its associated dynamics using these comparisons and how they can better inform interpretations of both proxy data and model simulations. We subsequently explore means of using proxy-model comparisons to better constrain and characterize future hydroclimate risks. This is explored specifically in the context of several examples that demonstrate how proxy-model comparisons can be used to quantitatively constrain future hydroclimatic risks as estimated from climate model projections.

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20,000 years of societal vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in southwest Asia

et al. 2019

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The Fertile Crescent, its hilly flanks and surrounding drylands has been a critical region for studying how climate has influenced societal change, and this review focuses on the region over the last 20,000 years. The complex social, economic, and environmental landscapes in the region today are not new phenomena and understanding their interactions requires a nuanced, multidisciplinary understanding of the past. This review builds on a history of collaboration between the social and natural palaeoscience disciplines. We provide a multidisciplinary, multiscalar perspective on the relevance of past climate, environmental, and archaeological research in assessing present day vulnerabilities and risks for the populations of southwest Asia. We discuss the complexity of palaeoclimatic data interpretation, particularly in relation to hydrology, and provide an overview of key time periods of palaeoclimatic interest. We discuss the critical role that vegetation plays in the human–climate–environment nexus and discuss the implications of the available palaeoclimate and archaeological data, and their interpretation, for palaeonarratives of the region, both climatically and socially. We also provide an overview of how modelling can improve our understanding of past climate impacts and associated change in risk to societies. We conclude by looking to future work, and identify themes of “scale” and “seasonality” as still requiring further focus. We suggest that by appreciating a given locale's place in the regional hydroscape, be it an archaeological site or palaeoenvironmental archive, more robust links to climate can be made where appropriate and interpretations drawn will demand the resolution of factors acting across multiple scales. This article is categorized under: Human Water > Water as Imagined and Represented Science of Water > Water and Environmental Change Water and Life > Nature of Freshwater Ecosystems

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Late Holocene droughts in the Fertile Crescent recorded in a speleothem from northern Iraq

Cited by 46 publications

References 51 publications

Mid- to late-Holocene archaeology, environment and climate in the northeast Kurdistan region of Iraq

Mid- to late-Holocene archaeology, environment and climate in the northeast Kurdistan region of Iraq

Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era

20,000 years of societal vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in southwest Asia

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