Late Quaternary Eruption Record and Probability of Future Volcanic Eruptions in the Long Valley Volcanic Region (CA, USA)

Abstract

The Long Valley volcanic region, eastern California, has been characterized by recurrent and generally explosive eruptions in the past 180,000 years, originating from a N/S elongated area ~50 km in extent, including the Mammoth Mountain lava dome complex, the Mono‐Inyo volcanic chain, and their peripheries. Several temporal clusters of activity have been observed in a relatively well‐preserved time‐stratigraphic record, which is nevertheless affected by uncertainties. This study has two main objectives: (1) to fully describe the past eruption record by using a stochastic model capable of combining radiometric ages and stratigraphic constraints and, (2) based on the uncertainty assessment, to develop a doubly stochastic, long‐term temporal model based on the current situation. Multiple approaches are described and compared, and multimodel forecasts are also presented. Our findings provide fundamental information for hazard assessment and forecasting of the next eruption in the Long Valley volcanic region, of which the mean probability of occurrence is estimated to be ~2.5% in the next 10 years and ~22.5% in the next 100 years.

Dynamic Probabilistic Hazard Mapping in the Long Valley Volcanic Region CA: Integrating Vent Opening Maps and Statistical Surrogates of Physical Models of Pyroclastic Density Currents

“…Hence, we tentatively inferred additional flow volumes from lava dome volumes, including those of the Mammoth Mountain domes. Results are included in Figure A1 and are collected from Bevilacqua et al (2018), Burkett (2007), Bursik et al (2014), Miller (1985, and Sieh and Bursik (1986). Average dome volumes are about 1 order of magnitude larger than those obtained from measured PDC deposits.…”

Magma Chamber Growth During Intercaldera Periods: Insights From Thermo‐Mechanical Modeling With Applications to Laguna del Maule, Campi Flegrei, Santorini, and Aso

“…Hildreth, 1981;Lipman et al, 1970;Sparks et al, 1985). These caldera-forming events can occur multiple times at the same volcano but typically happen infrequently, separated by tens to hundreds of thousands of years (Bevilacqua et al, 2018;Christiansen, 2001;Druitt & Francaviglia, 1992;Kaneko et al, 2007;Orsi et al, 1996;Wilson et al, 1995). Following large caldera-forming events, eruptions tend to be smaller volume and higher frequency, indicating a significant reduction in chamber size (Degruyter et al, 2016;Forni et al, 2018;Parks et al, 2012;Singer et al, 2014).…”

Constraining the Early Eruptive History of the Mono Craters Rhyolites, California, Based on 238U‐230Th Isochron Dating of Their Explosive and Effusive Products

“…• Table S1 • Table S2 Correspondence to: M. Marcaida, marcaida@stanford.edu the controversial Laschamp geomagnetic excursion recorded in the Wilson Creek formation (e.g., Cassata et al, 2010;Kent et al, 2002;Lund et al, 1988;Negrini et al, 2014;Zimmerman et al, 2006) and allows for an assessment of evolving magmatic conditions at Mono Craters. In addition, a well-resolved eruption chronology of early Mono Craters volcanism can be used (by others) for accurate determinations of longterm hazard probabilities for this young and potentially active rhyolitic system (e.g., Bevilacqua et al, 2017Bevilacqua et al, , 2018Hill et al, 2002;Miller, 1989;Miller et al, 1982).…”