Latin America and the Caribbean SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

Post, Lori A.; Ohiomoba, Ramael; Maras, Ashley; Watts, Sean J; Moss, Charles B.; Murphy, Robert L.; Ison, Michael G.; Achenbach, Chad J.; Resnick, Danielle; Singh, Lauren Nadya; White, Janine; Chaudhury, Azraa S.; Boctor, Michael J; Welch, Sarah B; Oehmke, James F.

doi:10.2196/25728

Cited by 22 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 11 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…This report will present both standard and new validated surveillance and transmission metrics [19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29] on the status of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in SSA countries over the past 3 weeks. The Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics [30] compiles data from multiple sources across individual websites, statistical reports, and press releases; data for the most recent 8 weeks were accessed from the GitHub repository [31].…”

Section: Novel Surveillance Metricsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Has Omicron Changed the Evolution of the Pandemic?

Lundberg¹,

Lorenzo-Redondo²,

Ozer³

et al. 2022

JMIR Public Health Surveill

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background Variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus carry differential risks to public health. The Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant, first identified in Botswana on November 11, 2021, has spread globally faster than any previous variant of concern. Understanding the transmissibility of Omicron is vital in the development of public health policy. Objective The aim of this study is to compare SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks driven by Omicron to those driven by prior variants of concern in terms of both the speed and magnitude of an outbreak. Methods We analyzed trends in outbreaks by variant of concern with validated surveillance metrics in several southern African countries. The region offers an ideal setting for a natural experiment given that most outbreaks thus far have been driven primarily by a single variant at a time. With a daily longitudinal data set of new infections, total vaccinations, and cumulative infections in countries in sub-Saharan Africa, we estimated how the emergence of Omicron has altered the trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks. We used the Arellano-Bond method to estimate regression coefficients from a dynamic panel model, in which new infections are a function of infections yesterday and last week. We controlled for vaccinations and prior infections in the population. To test whether Omicron has changed the average trajectory of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, we included an interaction between an indicator variable for the emergence of Omicron and lagged infections. Results The observed Omicron outbreaks in this study reach the outbreak threshold within 5-10 days after first detection, whereas other variants of concern have taken at least 14 days and up to as many as 35 days. The Omicron outbreaks also reach peak rates of new cases that are roughly 1.5-2 times those of prior variants of concern. Dynamic panel regression estimates confirm Omicron has created a statistically significant shift in viral spread. Conclusions The transmissibility of Omicron is markedly higher than prior variants of concern. At the population level, the Omicron outbreaks occurred more quickly and with larger magnitude, despite substantial increases in vaccinations and prior infections, which should have otherwise reduced susceptibility to new infections. Unless public health policies are substantially altered, Omicron outbreaks in other countries are likely to occur with little warning.

show abstract

Section: Novel Surveillance Metricsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Has Omicron Changed the Evolution of the Pandemic?

Lundberg¹,

Lorenzo-Redondo²,

Ozer³

et al. 2022

JMIR Public Health Surveill

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…To that end, in addition to traditional surveillance metrics, we used dynamic panel modeling and the generalized method of moments, which correct for limitations in existing surveillance. Parallel work utilizing enhanced surveillance metrics has been completed for sub-Saharan Africa [31], the United States [32], the Middle East and North Africa [33], Central Asia [34], Europe [35], Latin America and the Caribbean [36], East Asia and the Pacific [37], Canada [38], and metropolitan regions [39].…”

Section: Objectivementioning

confidence: 99%

“…We conducted similar studies based on dynamic panel data derived from other global regions [31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39]44,45] similar to South Asia.…”

Section: Comparison With Prior Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Interplay Between Policy and COVID-19 Outbreaks in South Asia: Longitudinal Trend Analysis of Surveillance Data

Welch¹,

Kulasekere²,

Prasad³

et al. 2021

JMIR Public Health Surveill

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background COVID-19 transmission rates in South Asia initially were under control when governments implemented health policies aimed at controlling the pandemic such as quarantines, travel bans, and border, business, and school closures. Governments have since relaxed public health restrictions, which resulted in significant outbreaks, shifting the global epicenter of COVID-19 to India. Ongoing systematic public health surveillance of the COVID-19 pandemic is needed to inform disease prevention policy to re-establish control over the pandemic within South Asia. Objective This study aimed to inform public health leaders about the state of the COVID-19 pandemic, how South Asia displays differences within and among countries and other global regions, and where immediate action is needed to control the outbreaks. Methods We extracted COVID-19 data spanning 62 days from public health registries and calculated traditional and enhanced surveillance metrics. We use an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in South Asia as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shifts in variables with a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano–Bond estimator in R. Results Traditional surveillance metrics indicate that South Asian countries have an alarming outbreak, with India leading the region with 310,310 new daily cases in accordance with the 7-day moving average. Enhanced surveillance indicates that while Pakistan and Bangladesh still have a high daily number of new COVID-19 cases (n=4819 and n=3878, respectively), their speed of new infections declined from April 12-25, 2021, from 2.28 to 2.18 and 3.15 to 2.35 daily new infections per 100,000 population, respectively, which suggests that their outbreaks are decreasing and that these countries are headed in the right direction. In contrast, India’s speed of new infections per 100,000 population increased by 52% during the same period from 14.79 to 22.49 new cases per day per 100,000 population, which constitutes an increased outbreak. Conclusions Relaxation of public health restrictions and the spread of novel variants fueled the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Asia. Public health surveillance indicates that shifts in policy and the spread of new variants correlate with a drastic expansion in the pandemic, requiring immediate action to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Surveillance is needed to inform leaders whether policies help control the pandemic.

show abstract

“…The visitors were allowed into the island countries only after producing a negative RT-PCR result and a proper self-paid state quarantine to avoid further COVID-19 spikes. Jamaica created a resilient tourist corridor, providing a fort-like boundary between the locals and the tourists ( 6 ). The COVID-19 confirmed cases in the Caribbean region as of December 2021 is 2,193,737 with a case fatality rate (CFR) of 1·34%, seen in Figures 1 and 2 ( 2 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The economic status of the country has waxed and waned over the years, but due to its resilient financial plan and firm trading bonds with Canada, United states of America and United Kingdom, it has been able to reduce the unemployment rate. The literacy rate in Barbados is close to 100% and the health sector is strengthened by its numerous polyclinics ( 6 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%