Le nouveau désordre électoral

Pour une pensée politique à l’école : problématique et fondements théoriques

“…Parmi ceux-ci, les plus visibles sont sans conteste la baisse de la participation électorale, la volatilité des comportements politiques et le cynisme ambiant vis-à-vis les élites et les institutions traditionnelles (Denis, 2005). Ici, comme ailleurs, ce nouveau désordre électoral est bien documenté (Cautrès et Mayer, 2004). Par exemple, il y a une quinzaine d'années, Pattie et Johnston (2003, p. 9) illustraient déjà ce phénomène par quelques chiffres :…”

Marine Le Pen can breach her glass ceiling: The drastic effect of differentiated abstention

“…To substantiate my claim I develop a simple generic study which departs from classical studies of abstention within political sciences [3,4,5,6,7,8,9]. More generally, I consider a two-candidate competition A and B with "exact" voting intentions I a and I b = 1 − I a .…”

“…However, given that x and y are not known, Eqs. ( 4) and ( 6) can only be used to define ranges of differentiated turnouts which yield the A victory as shown in Figures ( 1, 3,4,5). It is thus possible to signal when voting intentions are located in turnout ranges for which an unexpected outcome that contradicts poll predictions becomes feasible.…”

“…Figure (4) shows the variation of the critical curve y c = xIa 1−Ia for x = 0.95, 0.90, 0.85, 0.80, 0.75 as a function of 0 ≤ I a ≤ 1 2 . As an example, the intersection with the y = 0.60 (green) plane is exhibited.…”