Leader Effects and Voting for the Populist Radical Right in Western Europe

Abstract

Charismatic leaders are often assumed to drive the electoral success of populist radical right parties. Yet, little attention is given to how voter evaluations of leaders influence individual voting behavior. To our knowledge, no systematic and comparative tests of this empirical question exist. In this paper, we test to what extent voters' support for populist radical right parties is fueled by leaders' appreciation. In order to examine leader effects on the populist radical right vote, we rely on an original dataset pooling 29 National Election Studies from ten established West European parliamentary democracies (1985-2018). Our analysis finds that: (1) voters' evaluation of party leaders is significantly associated with voting for populist radical right parties; (2) leader evaluations are more important than left-right self-placement when it comes to voting for the populist radical right, and (3) leader effects are more important for populist radical right voters than for other voters.

The Personalization of Politics in Anglo-American Democracies

“…7 The decision to display the impact of leaders on vote for the top two parties only is significant, as many of these countries have multiparty systems and parties outside the top two are also competitive, and by not showing the effects of leaders on vote for all parties, it is possible that we are missing part of the story. Indeed, Michel et al (2020) suggest that voters of Right-wing Radical parties are more likely to focus on leaders, and usually these parties are not part of the top-two. It is conceivable that mainstream parties have been losing support to these other parties because of the role of party leaders, in which case, assessing a fuller set of parties is valuable.…”

Values, Taboos, and Votes: How Basic Human Values Affect Populist Electoral Support

“…Without a doubt, leaders of populist parties attract the most public attention, where the media plays a critical role in transmitting political leaders’ messages to the public, including the style with which they are being conveyed (Bos & Brants, 2014; Kestilä‐Kekkonen & Söderlund, 2014; Moffitt & Tormey, 2014). Empirical evidence from Western Europe suggests that supporters of right‐wing populist parties pay more attention to leaders than other parties’ voter bases (Kestilä‐Kekkonen & Söderlund, 2014; Michel et al, 2020). Similarly, the populist style has been shown to increase individuals’ perceived legitimacy of right‐wing populist party leaders in the Netherlands, yet only among lower‐educated, cynical, and less politically efficacious citizens (Bos et al, 2013).…”

Understanding Right-Wing Populism and What to Do about It

“…Research therefore complements demand-side accounts with careful consideration of how the supply side may matter. Crucial aspects of the supply side include the role of leadership (Donovan 2020;Michel et al 2020), public campaign financing (Bichay 2020), party and policy positioning (Barquero et al 2021;Chou et al 2021) and dynamics of party competition (Carter 2002;Mudde 2007). Others have instead focused on how RWPPs have varying willingness and ability to capitalise on the grievances of certain parts of their electorate (Koopmans and Statham 1999;Mudde 2010;Halikiopoulou et al 2013;Vasilopoulou et al 2014).…”