Leaders always mattered: The persistence of personality in Canadian elections

The effect of voters’ economic perception, Brexit and campaigns on the evaluation of party leaders over time

“…For example a candidate’s party affiliation already provides voters with information on policies the candidate is likely to support. However, an increasing number of electoral studies show that party leaders influence voting behaviour in parliamentary elections independently from political parties (Bittner, 2011, 2018a; Garzia, 2017; Lobo and Curtice, 2014; Mughan, 2015). I argue that party leaders matter to voters, because they serve as additional heuristics in the decision-making processes of voters (Clarke et al, 2004).…”

“…The electoral impact of voters’ evaluations of party leaders in parliamentary elections has been extensively covered (Aarts et al, 2011; Bittner, 2011, 2018b; Costa and Ferreira da Silva, 2015; Ferreira da Silva, 2018; Garzia, 2014, 2017; Lobo and Curtice, 2014; Mughan, 2015) and the influence of party leaders in elections may further increase as established democracies tend to become more and more personalised (Kriesi, 2012; Poguntke and Webb, 2005; Rahat and Kenig, 2018; Rahat and Sheafer, 2007; Wattenberg, 1991). Although it has also been argued that party leaders have always had an electoral impact (Bittner, 2018a). Scholars argue that such a personalisation of parliamentary democracies may endanger democracy.…”

Anticipated Election Result and Protest Voting: Why and When Canadian Voters Signal Discontent

“…Regarding political leaders and candidates, I include two variables that indicate if respondents prefer a district candidate and/or a national party leader other than the ones from their most preferred party better (dummies: yes/no). This is to account for respondents voting for a local candidate or national candidate rather than a party, for which there is empirical evidence in Canada (Bittner, 2018; Blais and Daoust, 2017). 8 Finally, I adjust for a set of demographic variables (age, gender, education) and the province of respondents in order to control for unobserved heterogeneity, specifically that resulting from the additional political dimension in Quebec.…”

cesR: An R package for the Canadian Election Study

“…The CES series provides insight into such topics as the intentions of voters, what issues voters deem important, and the perception of parties and candidates (Canadian Election Study, 2019). For instance, Bittner (2018) used CES data to assess the level of presidentialization experienced in Canadian elections over time; while other studies have used CES data to assess the level of Islamophobia in Canada (Wilkins-Laflamme, 2018), how anti-party rhetoric affects voter behaviour (Gidengil et al, 2001), and how political trust influences voter behaviour (Belanger and Nadeau, 2005), among many other topics. The collection of, and access to, the CES data is integral to this research.…”