When developing a causal probabilistic model, that is, a Bayesian network (BN), it is common to incorporate expert knowledge of factors that are important for decision analysis, but there are models where historical data is not available or difficult to obtain, or it is difficult to have a human expert nearby to help. This document explains how data is developed from a discrete/continuous simulated variable through a BN and mixed integerlinear programming (MILP), and the impact of this variable is measured as an important element for the decision-making model. Consider as an additional expert variable. The CBR model and the variable in question is contextualized to support in the decision-making process in a supply chain through two stages, the first is considered multiple factories, with multiple distribution centers (DC) and second, from the multiple distribution centers as it reaches multiple points of sale. As a design of a decision support system for the construction of a supply chain network (SCN) for a range of multiple end products, as well as the determination of factories and distribution centers, it also helps in the design of the distribution network strategy that satisfies all the capacities and requirements of demand of the product imposed through the points of sale. At the end of the work, an evaluation of the performance of two Bayesian networks is carried out, where one of them represents the incorporation of the expert variable using two methods, one of them the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and two a method proposed by Constantinou et al. [2]., Where in both cases the Bayesian network gave a better performance with the expert variable.