Abstract. This paper analyses risk and uncertainty in the governance of UK energy policy and regulation. The UK's current planning system is unfavourable towards certain types of onshore renewable energy technologies. As a result, the UK is running the risk of retaining a comparatively small amount of its expenditure on the diffusion of renewable energy technologies both nationally and locally. This is contextualised within the broader framework of decarbonisation, transnational renewable energy targets and the lock-in associated with large infrastructures such as the energy system.
The context of UK energy policyIn the second quarter of 2011 renewables contributed 9.6% (7.86TWh) to the UK's electricity supply. This represents a 50% rise on 2010. The wind energy sector saw output rise 120% year on year, while hydro rose by 75% over the same period. Gas contributed 44% (down from 53% in 2010), coal 22% and nuclear 21% [1].By 2020, around 1/3 of the UK's coal fired capacity, 2/3 of the oil fired capacity and nearly ¾ of the nuclear capacity, which amounts to around 30% of the UK's entire generating capacity [2], will be closed down due to age or the impact of the EU's large combustion plant directive [3]. For this same period, the UK has agreed to increase the share of energy demand to be covered by renewable sources to 15%, which will see the share of renewable electricity rise to around 30% [4]. By 2050, the electricity sector needs to be nearly entirely decarbonised in order to achieve the legally binding target of 80% CO2 emissions reductions on 1990 levels by 2050 [5,6].In order to achieve this transition towards a low-carbon and increasingly renewable energy system, investments ranging between £100bn and £200bn [6-8] will be required. The need to replace ageing electricity generation infrastructure and the pressure to expand renewable energy generation while reducing the overall carbon intensity of the UK economy is exacerbated by economic uncertainties, posing a considerable challenge to the UK economy and its energy sector in particular.Energy policy in the UK has already witnessed various priority shifts in the last 40 year as Britain has swung from being a major oil and gas importer to being a producer and then moving back to being an importer, with import dependency set to increase to 46-58% by 2020 compared to 27% in 2009 [9].The UK's principle dependency on gas was established in the 1990s as coal fired generation was phased out with the 'dash for gas' associated with privatisation and competition supplanting the post-war model of nationalisation and statutory policy. The result is that the achievement of policy objectives such as maintaining the security of supply has increasingly been placed in the hands of market forces [10].
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