Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review of mathematical vaccine prioritization models

González-Parra, Gilberto; Mahmud, Md Shahriar; Kadelka, Claus

doi:10.1016/j.idm.2024.05.005

Infectious Disease Modelling

2024

DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2024.05.005

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Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review of mathematical vaccine prioritization models

Gilberto González-Parra,

Md Shahriar Mahmud,

Claus Kadelka

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2024

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Cited by 3 publications

References 162 publications

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A Model Accounting for Susceptible Individuals with Weaker and Stronger Immune Systems, and the dynamics of Administering First, Second and Booster Dose of the COVID-19 Vaccine in Malaysia

Nwaibeh,

Ali

2024

Infectious Disease Modelling

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A Model Accounting for Susceptible Individuals with Weaker and Stronger Immune Systems, and the dynamics of Administering First, Second and Booster Dose of the COVID-19 Vaccine in Malaysia

Nwaibeh,

Ali

2024

Infectious Disease Modelling

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Model-informed optimal allocation of limited resources to mitigate infectious disease outbreaks in societies at war

Srivastava,

Sarkar,

Kadelka

2024

J. R. Soc. Interface.

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Infectious diseases thrive in war-torn societies. The recent sharp increase in human conflict and war thus requires the development of disease mitigation tools that account for the specifics of war, such as the scarcity of important public health resources. We developed a compartmental, differential equation-based disease model that considers key social, war and disease mechanisms, such as gender homophily and the replacement of soldiers. This model enables the identification of optimal allocation strategies that, given limited resources required for treating infected individuals, minimize disease burden, assessed by total mortality and final epidemic size. A comprehensive model analysis reveals that the level of resource scarcity fundamentally affects the optimal allocation. Desynchronization of the epidemic peaks among several population subgroups emerges as a desirable principle since it reduces disease spread between different subgroups. Further, the level of preferential mixing among people of the same gender, gender homophily, proves to strongly affect disease dynamics and optimal treatment allocation strategies, highlighting the importance of accurately accounting for heterogeneous mixing patterns. Altogether, the findings help answer a timely question: how can infectious diseases be best controlled in societies at war? The developed model can be easily extended to specific diseases, countries and interventions.

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Optimal COVID-19 vaccine prioritization by age depends critically on inter-group contacts and vaccination rates

Atienza-Diez,

Rodriguez-Maroto,

Ares

et al. 2024

R. Soc. Open Sci.

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The limited availability of COVID-19 vaccines has prompted extensive research on optimal vaccination strategies. Previous studies have considered various non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccine efficacy and distribution strategies. In this work, we address the combined effects of inter-group contacts and vaccination rates under contact reduction, analysing the Spanish population’s demographic and age group contact patterns and incorporating reinfection dynamics. We conduct an exhaustive analysis, evaluating 362 880 permutations of nine age groups across six vaccination rates and two distinct, empirically quantified scenarios for social contacts. Our results show that at intermediate-to-high vaccination rates with unrestricted social contacts, optimal age-based vaccination strategies only slightly deviate from older-to-younger prioritization, yielding marginal reductions in deaths and infections. However, when significant reductions in social contacts are enforced—similar to the lockdowns in 2020—there are substantial improvements, particularly at moderate vaccination rates. These restrictions lead to a transition where infection propagation is halted, a scenario that became achievable during the pandemic with the observed vaccination rates. Our findings emphasize the importance of combining appropriate social contact reductions with vaccination to optimize age-based vaccination strategies, underscoring the complex, nonlinear dynamics involved in pandemic dynamics and the necessity for tailored context-specific interventions.

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Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review of mathematical vaccine prioritization models

Cited by 3 publications

References 162 publications

A Model Accounting for Susceptible Individuals with Weaker and Stronger Immune Systems, and the dynamics of Administering First, Second and Booster Dose of the COVID-19 Vaccine in Malaysia

A Model Accounting for Susceptible Individuals with Weaker and Stronger Immune Systems, and the dynamics of Administering First, Second and Booster Dose of the COVID-19 Vaccine in Malaysia

Model-informed optimal allocation of limited resources to mitigate infectious disease outbreaks in societies at war

Optimal COVID-19 vaccine prioritization by age depends critically on inter-group contacts and vaccination rates

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