Leaving, Staying or Coming Back? Migration Decisions During the Northern Mali Conflict

Abstract

This paper uses a unique dataset to analyse the migration dynamics of refugees, returnees and internally displaced people from the Northern Mali conflict. Individuals were interviewed monthly using mobile phones. Our results cast light on the characteristics of these three groups before and after displacement. In addition, we test how employment and security were related to migration status, as well as the willingness to go back home. Individuals who were employed while displaced were less willing to go back to the North, while those who owned a gun were more likely to plan to go back. Additional indicators of personal safety played a lesser role.

Tracking Displaced People in Mali

“…The data collected takes the form of a longitudinal (panel) dataset, which allows to control for individual fixed effects. Hoogeveen et al (2019) exploit the panel nature of the dataset to investigate the drivers of the decision to return, exploring how employment status, security, and expectations affect people's willingness to go back home. The findings suggest that the decision to return is affected by a comparison of (opportunity) costs and benefits, but also by other factors: Individuals who are employed while displaced are less willing to return home, as are better-educated individuals, or those receiving assistance.…”

Displacement and Return in the Internet Era: How Social Media Captures Migration Decisions in Northern Syria

“…Knowledge of the factors which initiate displacement is key to understanding when refugees may return. Individuals are more likely to return once there are economic opportunities, services, and social networks in place to support their transition, the same features which may have prompted movement away from a region when they became unavailable (Aymerich and Zeyneloglu (2019), Hoogeveen et al (2017), Arias et al (2014)). In a survey study conducted on 3,003 displaced Syrian families in Lebanon, Alrababa'h et al (2020) weigh the influence of "pull" factors, which draw individuals back to their former homes, and "push" factors which encourage them to leave their host communities.…”

Cash transfers, migration, and gender norms

“…We borrow this terminology from a related cash transfer literature that investigates consumer demand responses to short-term income shocks (Kenkel et al, 2014). 2 Conflict migration receives increasing attention given the civil war and presence of insurgent groups in the North (Hoogeveen et al, 2019). We focus on voluntary patterns of migration given the geographic focus of the rural South, here and elsewhere in the literature.…”

“…For example, poor road infrastructure can limit the options of where migrants may travel and prevent the return of successful migrants with information about employment (Bryan et al, 2014). In Mali, security issues related to conflict may also limit where migrants travel (Hoogeveen et al, 2019). Conditionalities such as a requirement to participate in public works may change dynamics around migration-particularly employment migration-in ways that differ from unconditional CTs.…”