Length of independence and democratic failure

Abstract

This article takes as a point of departure a well-known but rarely tested assumption in the literature on state-building and democratisation, namely that democratic regimes in newly established states are politically unstable. When states take their first steps as independent entities, the state-building process is often incomplete, the political institutions fragile and democratic routines yet to be established. However, with increasing years of independence, these democratic shortcomings are expected to be remedied. This makes it reasonable to assume that the likelihood of democratic failure decreases with increasing years as an independent state. Based on an extensive empirical data set, the conclusion was reached that there is indeed a negative relationship between the length of independence and democratic failure and that this association is insensitive to the period in time when the countries received their independence. Furthermore, the results suggest that the length of democratic rule has a positive impact on democratic stability. However, this pattern is detectable only in states created after 1946.