Lengthening Dry Spells Intensify Summer Heatwaves

He, Bin; Zhong, Ziqian; Chen, Deliang; Liu, Junguo; Chen, Y.; Miao, Chiyuan; Ding, Ruiqiang; Yuan, Wenping; Guo, Lanlan; Huang, Ling; Hao, Xinjun; Chen, Aifang

doi:10.1029/2022gl099647

Cited by 9 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…It is worth mentioning that the heatwaves odds experienced insignificant (P value > 0.05) changes for 23% of stations, including Abadan, Arak, Birjand, Urmia, Zahedan, and Zanjan. Other studies confirmed similar positive tendencies in heatwaves characteristics, summer temperature, and maximum dry spell temperature in different regions around the world (Basha et al, 2017;Deng et al, 2018;He et al, 2022;Jamali et al, 2022;Jyoteeshkumar Reddy et al, 2021;Motamedi et al, 2023;Sato & Nakamura, 2019;Trancoso et al, 2020).…”

Section: Heatwave Duration and Heating Ratesupporting

confidence: 65%

Heatwave Duration and Heating Rate in a Non‐Stationary Climate: Spatiotemporal Pattern and Key Drivers

Chitsaz,

Gohari,

Najafi

et al. 2023

Earth's Future

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Heatwaves have had adverse affects on human life, ecosystems, and society. Global warming is expected to heighten the characteristics of heatwaves such as severity, duration, and frequency. Therefore, understanding the evolution of heatwaves is a central issue in climate change research with high relevance for society. Establishing a proper threshold for issuing a heatwave can be one of the most important issues in heatwaves studies, however, fewer studies focused on characterizing and modeling a heatwave threshold according to non‐stationary behavior, local geographic and physiographic characteristics. We have developed an applicable probabilistic framework to explore the heatwave events with different durations by applying appropriate thresholds. In this study, the proposed framework was applied to define the nonstationary frequency analysis of heatwaves models to account for the temporal trend caused by climate variability and change across Iran. The results showed that shorter heatwaves odds have been intensified more over Iran while longer heatwaves have not changed substantially. We find a substantial increase in heatwave hazard across Iran with a 40‐year available daily record, collectively from 1977 to 2019. The spatial distribution of the best non‐stationary models confirms the temporal evolution of heatwaves features due to global warming over Iran.

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Section: Heatwave Duration and Heating Ratesupporting

confidence: 65%

Heatwave Duration and Heating Rate in a Non‐Stationary Climate: Spatiotemporal Pattern and Key Drivers

Chitsaz,

Gohari,

Najafi

et al. 2023

Earth's Future

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“…Because ET plays a vital role in modulating surface air temperature through cooling effects. The reduction in ET may increase sensible heat flux, thereby increasing the air temperature and even leading to heat waves (He et al, 2022). In the case of this study, the potential decrease in ET during September and October may be associated with reinforced stomatal closure, simultaneously leading to a decline in photosynthesis, which can be corroborated by the findings of the extremely low levels of vegetation productivity in the same period (Zhao et al, 2023).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Response of evapotranspiration to the 2022 unprecedented extreme drought in the Yangtze River Basin

Zhang,

Liu,

Wang

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The response of evapotranspiration (ET) to drought is essential for understanding water availability under drought conditions, which has received increasing scientific attention but remains highly uncertain. An unprecedented extreme drought sweeping the whole Yangtze River Basin during the summer and autumn of 2022 provides a novel opportunity to explore the ET response to drought within large river basins. Here, we apply multiple ET products to investigate the spatiotemporal variation of ET during the 2022 extreme drought and analyse the response of ET to drought in the Yangtze River Basin. The results show that this drought, characterized by widespread substantial precipitation deficit and high level of atmospheric evaporative demand (AED), leads to evident abnormal ET. Over the whole basin, ET exhibits a notable increase in the initial 2 months of this drought, which can significantly reduce water availability. However, despite continued high AED, the increase in ET fails to remain in the following months due to limited moisture supply. This suggests that ET response to drought varies as drought progresses. Among other drought events from 2003 to 2022, the response of ET is similar to that in the 2022 extreme drought. Specifically, for most sub‐basins, ET typically shows positive anomalies in the early stage of drought, followed by negative anomalies in the late stage. Generally, our findings improve the understanding of the dynamic response of ET to drought at the basin scale, which is crucial for basin water security.

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“…Also, in Bangladesh, rainfall is dropping by 75% during the monsoon season (Monir et al 2023a). Since the 1970s, the worldwide mean dry spell length (DSL) has grown by 0.46 days each decade (He et al 2022). Droughts are natural climatic catastrophes that occur in speci c parts of the world during dry spells with minimal precipitation caused by a lot of ocean and local factors (Breinl et al, 2020;Faiz et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to the present study, 82.35% of weather stations are rising for short dry spells, 73.53% in medium-length dry spells, and 50% in long dry spells. Also, since the 1970s, the worldwide mean dry spell length (DSL) has grown by 0.46 days each decade(He et al 2022). Dry season spells across South America and southern Africa are getting longer, up to about two days every decade, while those over West Africa are getting shorter, around the same length).…”

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confidence: 99%

Analysis of the trend of dry spells and how ocean factors affect its patterns during the summer monsoon in Bangladesh using the Mann-Kendall and Frontier Atmospheric General Circulation Model

Monir,

Sarker,

Rahman

et al. 2024

Preprint

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To assess drought risk, susceptibility to food security, and water resource utilization, it is crucial to comprehend dry spell patterns from a hydrological perspective. Some regional studies have noted an extension of dry spells on a global and regional scale, but it is still unclear how often dry spells occur during the summer monsoon season, which is dominated by rainfall. This study uses the Mann-Kendall trend test to examine the trend of dry spells during Bangladesh's summer monsoon from 1985 to 2022 to close this gap. Using the Frontier Atmospheric General Circulation model and remote sensing methods to examine the effects of ocean elements such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Sea Surface Temperature (SST), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions, and the zonal wind. Daily rainfall data for 34 weather stations were obtained from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department, while surface water occurrence and change intensity data were retrieved from the JRC Global Surface Water Mapping Layers, v1.3 (FAO, UN). The NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory (PSL) and the Tokyo Climate Center/WMO Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia) provided the IOD, SST, ENSO, and zonal wind data. A notable dry spell anomaly over Bangladesh was also noted in this research, with the short, medium-length, and long dry spells increasing in 82.35%, 73.53%, and 50% of weather stations. When El Niño was present, there was less of a dry spell and more during La Niña. The climatic variability of IOD events and SST anomalies in the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean were also noted by this study to be connected to these anomalous events. The correlation coefficient between summer monsoon rainfall and DMI is 0.34. Throughout the study period, there were changes in the upper atmosphere's and lower troposphere's wind circulation. The study allows the prioritization of regions for drought, effective water resource management, and food scarcity preparedness.

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Lengthening Dry Spells Intensify Summer Heatwaves

Cited by 9 publications

References 54 publications

Heatwave Duration and Heating Rate in a Non‐Stationary Climate: Spatiotemporal Pattern and Key Drivers

Heatwave Duration and Heating Rate in a Non‐Stationary Climate: Spatiotemporal Pattern and Key Drivers

Response of evapotranspiration to the 2022 unprecedented extreme drought in the Yangtze River Basin

Analysis of the trend of dry spells and how ocean factors affect its patterns during the summer monsoon in Bangladesh using the Mann-Kendall and Frontier Atmospheric General Circulation Model

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