Less Is More

Abstract

Given that sexual offenders are more likely to reoffend with a nonsexual offense than a sexual offense, it is useful to have risk scales that predict general recidivism among sexual offenders. In the current study, we examined the extent to which two commonly used risk scales for sexual offenders (Static-99R and Static-2002R) predict violent and general recidivism, and whether it would be possible to improve predictive accuracy for these outcomes by revising their items. Based on an aggregated sample of 3,536 adult male sex offenders from Canada, the United States, and Europe (average age of 39 years), we found that a scale created from the Age at Release item and the General Criminality subscale of Static-2002R predicted nonsexual violent, any violent, and general recidivism significantly better than Static-99R or Static-2002R total scores. The convergent validity of this new scale (Brief Assessment of Recidivism Risk-2002R [BARR-2002R]) was examined in a new, independent data set of Canadian high-risk adult male sex offenders (N = 360) where it was found to be highly correlated with other risk assessment tools for general recidivism and the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R), as well as demonstrated similar discrimination and calibration as in the development sample. Instead of using total scores from the Static-99R or Static-2002R, we recommend that evaluators use the BARR-2002R for predicting violent and general recidivism among sex offenders, and for screening for the psychological dimension of antisocial orientation.

STABLE-2007 Demonstrates Predictive and Incremental Validity in Assessing Risk-Relevant Propensities for Sexual Offending: A Meta-Analysis

“…Factor analyses of STABLE-2007 reveal that some items load onto a general propensity for rule-violation domain whereas the remaining items load onto a sex crime–specific problems domain (Brouillette-Alarie & Hanson, 2015). Given that the inclusion of static items assessing sex crime–specific problems depreciates the prediction of general and violent recidivism (Babchishin, Hanson, & Blais, 2016), the sex crime–specific items from STABLE-2007 (e.g., emotional congruence with children, deviant sexual interests) may be unrelated, or even negatively related, to nonsexual recidivism. Consequently, it may be possible to improve STABLE-2007’s ability to predict general or violent recidivism by only considering items related to general criminality.…”

Parental and perinatal risk factors for sexual offending in men: a nationwide case-control study

“…It is parsimonious to view sexual offending as a manifestation of general antisocial tendencies because a substantial proportion of sex offenders also commit non-sexual offences (Babchishin et al . 2016).…”

Latent Constructs of the Static-99R and Static-2002R

“…Conversely, scales that contain mainly sexual criminality items, such as the Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offence Recidivism (RRASOR; Hanson, 1997), should predict sexual recidivism, but not general recidivism. If it is known that a scale contains items related to both sexual and general criminality (e.g., Static-99R), then it is possible to improve the prediction of nonsexual outcomes by removing the sexual criminality items (Babchishin, Hanson, & Blais, 2015).…”