Lessons in modelling and management of marine ecosystems: the Atlantis experience

Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Link, Jason S.; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Savina-Rolland, Marie; Johnson, Penelope; Ainsworth, Cameron H.; Horne, Peter; Gorton, Rebecca; Gamble, Robert; Smith, Anthony D. M.; Smith, David C.

doi:10.1111/j.1467-2979.2011.00412.x

Cited by 510 publications

(393 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…The blending of empiricism and mechanistic principles applied in this study is intended to help bridge the gap between predominantly data-driven analysis of catch indicators (14,15,19) and the development and application of more mechanistic global fisheries models rooted in theoretical constraints but of often challenging complexity (13,(62)(63)(64)(65). Parameters and emergent patterns from the simple trophodynamic models herein can be directly compared against simulated patterns from these latter models.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reconciling fisheries catch and ocean productivity

Stock

John

Rykaczewski

et al. 2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Photosynthesis fuels marine food webs, yet differences in fish catch across globally distributed marine ecosystems far exceed differences in net primary production (NPP). We consider the hypothesis that ecosystem-level variations in pelagic and benthic energy flows from phytoplankton to fish, trophic transfer efficiencies, and fishing effort can quantitatively reconcile this contrast in an energetically consistent manner. To test this hypothesis, we enlist global fish catch data that include previously neglected contributions from small-scale fisheries, a synthesis of global fishing effort, and plankton food web energy flux estimates from a prototype high-resolution global earth system model (ESM). After removing a small number of lightly fished ecosystems, stark interregional differences in fish catch per unit area can be explained (r = 0.79) with an energy-based model that (i) considers dynamic interregional differences in benthic and pelagic energy pathways connecting phytoplankton and fish, (ii) depresses trophic transfer efficiencies in the tropics and, less critically, (iii) associates elevated trophic transfer efficiencies with benthic-predominant systems. Model catch estimates are generally within a factor of 2 of values spanning two orders of magnitude. Climate change projections show that the same macroecological patterns explaining dramatic regional catch differences in the contemporary ocean amplify catch trends, producing changes that may exceed 50% in some regions by the end of the 21st century under high-emissions scenarios. Models failing to resolve these trophodynamic patterns may significantly underestimate regional fisheries catch trends and hinder adaptation to climate change.fisheries catch | primary production | ocean productivity | climate change | food webs N early 50 years ago, John Ryther (1) published his seminal work "Photosynthesis and Fish Production in the Sea" in which he hypothesized that differences in net primary production (NPP) alone could not explain stark differences in fish catch across disparate marine ecosystems. Drawing upon "trophic dynamic" principles governing the transfer of energy through ecosystems (2), he hypothesized that synergistic interactions between NPP differences, the length of food chains connecting phytoplankton and fish, and the efficiency of trophic transfers were required to reconcile catch differences. The trophodynamic principles drawn upon by Ryther now underpin diverse models and indicators used in ecosystem-based marine resource management (3-5), yet stubborn uncertainties in the relationship between ocean productivity and fish catch persist. Official catch reports often omit globally significant discards and small-scale artisanal and subsistence catch (6). Uncertain differences in fishing effort and impacts of fishing history complicate attribution of catch differences to "bottom-up" considerations of ocean productivity or "top-down" fishing effects (7). Difficulties directly observing and estimating trophodynamic properties, including NPP (8),...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reconciling fisheries catch and ocean productivity

Stock

John

Rykaczewski

et al. 2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

244

255

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“…The generalized modeling framework allowed us to empirically parameterize models of social and ecological processes even though their precise causal relationships were often not known. The resulting model permitted a range of thorough and mathematically rigorous analyses that are not commonly available to other social-ecological models, such as agent-based models (65,66). Especially when combined with causal loop diagrams as a collaborative or participatory modeling tool, generalized modeling can be used to understand the qualitative dynamics of many natural resource management problems, as well as social-ecological systems more generally (18).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts

Lade

Niiranen

Hentati‐Sundberg

et al. 2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social-ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social-ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing socialecological models.social-ecological systems | fisheries | generalized modeling | human decision making | feedback analysis

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“…BALTIC ATL Fulton et al, 2011;Palacz et al, 2014Nielsen et al, 2015b;Nielsen, Palacz, et al, 2015. 29 CA CURRENT ATL Kaplan et al, 2009Kaplan et al, , 2014Fulton et al, 2011;Kaplan & Leonard, 2012;. Fulton et al, 2011;van Putten, Gorton, Fulton, Thebaud 2013;van Putten, Deng, et al, 2013;Fulton et al, 2014;.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Fulton et al, 2011;van Putten, Gorton, Fulton, Thebaud 2013;van Putten, Deng, et al, 2013;Fulton et al, 2014;. Fernandes et al, 2013;Fernandes, Kay, et al, 2016;Fernandes, Papathanasopoulou, et al, 2016;Queirós et al, 2015.…”

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Integrated ecological–economic fisheries models—Evaluation, review and challenges for implementation

et al. 2017

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Marine ecosystems evolve under many interconnected and area-specific pressures. To fulfil society's intensifying and diversifying needs while ensuring ecologically sustainable development, more effective marine spatial planning and broader-scope management of marine resources is necessary. Integrated ecological-economic fisheries models (IEEFMs) of marine systems are needed to evaluate impacts and sustainability of potential management actions and understand, and anticipate ecological, economic and social dynamics at a range of scales from local to national and regional. To make these models most effective, it is important to determine how model characteristics and methods of communicating results influence the model implementation, the nature of the advice that can be provided and the impact on decisions taken by managers. This article presents a global review and comparative evaluation of 35 IEEFMs applied to marine fisheries and marine ecosystem resources to identify the characteristics that determine their usefulness, effectiveness and implementation. The focus is on fully integrated models that allow for feedbacks between ecological and human processes although not all the models reviewed achieve that. Modellers must invest more time to make models user friendly and to participate in management fora where models and model results can be explained and discussed. Such involvement is beneficial to all parties, leading to improvement of models and more effective implementation of advice, but demands substantial resources which must be built into the governance process. It takes time to develop effective processes for using IEEFMs requiring a long-term commitment to integrating multidisciplinary modelling advice into management decision-making. K E Y W O R D Sbio-economic models, comparative model evaluation, fisheries management advice, integrated ecological-economic fisheries models, marine spatial planning and cross-sector management, performance criteria and scales and risks, use and acceptance and implementation and communication and flexibility and complexity | INTRODUCTIONThere is a growing need for tools to evaluate policies and assess tradeoffs in management of marine resources and provision of ecosystem services such as fishing, aquaculture, renewable energy, shipping, conservation and recreation (Cormier, Kannen, Elliott, & Hall, 2015;Degnbol & Wilson, 2008;EU 2014;Langlois, Fréon, Steyer, Delgenés, & Hélias, 2014;White et al., 2012). It is necessary to elaborate and apply common principles and broader, interdisciplinary management evaluation in the use of marine space involving several types of activities and sectors Soma et al., 2013;Stelzenmüller et al., 2013;Sundblad et al., 2014). Policymakers need to know the costs and benefits of conserving ecosystem goods and services to manage them sustainably. Moreover, according to an ecosystembased approach to management, specific pressures, associated uncertainties and risks need to be taken into account (Douvere, 2008;Ehler & Douvere, 2009;Gi...

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Lessons in modelling and management of marine ecosystems: the Atlantis experience

Cited by 510 publications

References 61 publications

Reconciling fisheries catch and ocean productivity

Reconciling fisheries catch and ocean productivity

An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts

Integrated ecological–economic fisheries models—Evaluation, review and challenges for implementation

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