Leukemia mortality in children from Latin America: trends and predictions to 2030

Abstract

Background Reports suggest that Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries have not reduced leukemia mortality compared to high-income countries. However, updated trends remain largely unknown in the region. Given that leukemia is the leading cause of cancer-related death in LAC children, we evaluated mortality trends in children (0-14y) from 15 LAC countries for the period 2000–2017 and predicted mortality to 2030. Methods We retrieved cancer mortality data using the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Mortality rates (standardized to the world standard SEGI population) were analyzed for 15 LAC countries. We evaluated the average mortality rates for the last 5 years (2013–2017). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to evaluate leukemia mortality trends and provide an estimated annual percent change (EAPC). Nordpred was utilized for the calculation of predictions until 2030. Results Between 2013 and 2017, the highest mortality rates were reported in Venezuela, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Mexico, and Peru. Upward mortality trends were reported in Nicaragua (EAPC by 2.9% in boys, and EAPC by 2.0% in girls), and Peru (EAPC by 1.4% in both sexes). Puerto Rico experienced large declines in mortality among both boys (EAPC by − 9.7%), and girls (EAPC by − 6.0%). Leukemia mortality will increase in Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, Panama, Peru, and Uruguay by 2030. Conclusion Leukemia mortality is predicted to increase in some LAC countries by 2030. Interventions to prevent this outcome should be tailor to reduce the socioeconomic inequalities and ensure universal healthcare coverage.

Low Prevalence of ETV6::RUNX1 Fusion Gene in a Hispanic Population

“…B-ALL is the second leading cause of death in the group aged between 5 and 14 years ( 2 ), with an estimated incidence of 49.5 cases per million in Mexico City. This incidence is one of the highest reported in North America and is similar to Hispanics living in the United States, with a predicted increase in mortality by 2030 ( 3 – 5 ). Over the last few years, the survival of children with ALL has not improved in Mexico; according to the CONCORD-3 study, the five-year survival rate for Mexican children with ALL was <60%, while in developed countries rates reached 90% 5 years after diagnosis ( 6 ).…”

“…Also, we detected a higher average age of 8.6 years (range.2–17.7 years) than that of Caucasian children with ALL (5.4) ( 28 ), similar to a recent study in Mexico, which is 9.3 (< 1–19, N = 154, 2020 B-ALL ( 20 ). This increase is the result of a higher percentage in the cohort of patients with ALL over 10 years of age (39.7%) ( Table 1 ) related to the increase reported on ALL in the Latin American population ( 5 ).…”

Epidemiological characterization and outcomes of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia in a third level of attention hospital in Honduras: a cross-sectional study

“…This is probably due to the barriers to healthcare access, social disparities, and the lack of economic resources hamper the survival improvements seen in highincome countries. (35) Although several limitations and inequities are known to be part of treatment abandonment and death, there is still a need to explore other factors that could in uence these outcomes. Effective ALL treatment in low-income countries like ours requires that therapy, including medication costs, be made free of charge or at the very minimum be highly subsidized so that the patient's family can afford the minimal contributions necessary for adequate treatment.…”

Changing trends of disease burden of gastric cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and its predictions: Findings from Global Burden of Disease Study

“…The package Nordpred in the R program, which has been shown to perform well in predicting the trend of cancer incidence ( 20 - 22 ), was used to perform an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis to predict the numbers and rates of the incidence and mortality of GC in the next 25 years, taking into account both the change in rates and the population structure. The Nordpred package can apply the power5 and poisson APC models to perform the prediction ( https://rdrr.io/github/haraldwf/nordpred/man/nordpred.html ).…”