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Over the past 15 years, the D-statistic, a four-taxon test for organismal admixture (hybridization, or introgression) which incorporates single nucleotide polymorphism data with allelic patterns ABBA and BABA, has seen considerable use. This statistic seeks to discern significant deviation from either a given species tree assumption, or from the balanced incomplete lineage sorting that could otherwise defy this species tree. However, while the D-statistic can successfully discriminate admixture from incomplete lineage sorting, it is not a simple matter to determine the directionality of admixture using only four-leaf tree models. As such, methods have been developed that use 5 leaves to evaluate admixture. Among these, the DFOIL method, which tests allelic patterns on the “symmetric” tree S = (((1,2),(3,4)),5), succeeds in finding admixture direction for many five-taxon examples. However, DFOIL does not make full use of all symmetry, nor can DFOIL function properly when ancient samples are included because of the reliance on singleton patterns (such as BAAAA and ABAAA). Here, we take inspiration from DFOIL to develop a new and completely general family of five-leaf admixture tests, dubbed Δ-statistics, that can either incorporate or exclude the singleton allelic patterns depending on individual taxon and age sampling choices. We describe two new shapes that are also fully testable, namely the “asymmetric” tree A = ((((1,2),3),4),5) and the “quasisymmetric” tree Q = (((1,2),3),(4,5)), which can considerably supplement the “symmetric“ S = (((1,2),(3,4)),5) model used by DFOIL. We demonstrate the consistency of Δ-statistics under various simulated scenarios, and provide empirical examples using data from black, brown and polar bears, the latter also including two ancient polar bear samples from previous studies. Recently DFOIL and one of these ancient samples was used to argue for a dominant polar bear → brown bear introgression direction. However, we find, using both this ancient polar bear and our own, that by far the strongest signal using both DFOIL and Δ-statistics on tree S is actually bidirectional gene flow of indistinguishable direction. Further experiments on trees A and Q instead highlight what were likely two phases of admixture: one with stronger brown bear → polar bear introgression in ancient times, and a more recent phase with predominant polar bear → brown bear directionality. Code and documentation available at https://github.com/KalleLeppala/Delta-statistics.
Over the past 15 years, the D-statistic, a four-taxon test for organismal admixture (hybridization, or introgression) which incorporates single nucleotide polymorphism data with allelic patterns ABBA and BABA, has seen considerable use. This statistic seeks to discern significant deviation from either a given species tree assumption, or from the balanced incomplete lineage sorting that could otherwise defy this species tree. However, while the D-statistic can successfully discriminate admixture from incomplete lineage sorting, it is not a simple matter to determine the directionality of admixture using only four-leaf tree models. As such, methods have been developed that use 5 leaves to evaluate admixture. Among these, the DFOIL method, which tests allelic patterns on the “symmetric” tree S = (((1,2),(3,4)),5), succeeds in finding admixture direction for many five-taxon examples. However, DFOIL does not make full use of all symmetry, nor can DFOIL function properly when ancient samples are included because of the reliance on singleton patterns (such as BAAAA and ABAAA). Here, we take inspiration from DFOIL to develop a new and completely general family of five-leaf admixture tests, dubbed Δ-statistics, that can either incorporate or exclude the singleton allelic patterns depending on individual taxon and age sampling choices. We describe two new shapes that are also fully testable, namely the “asymmetric” tree A = ((((1,2),3),4),5) and the “quasisymmetric” tree Q = (((1,2),3),(4,5)), which can considerably supplement the “symmetric“ S = (((1,2),(3,4)),5) model used by DFOIL. We demonstrate the consistency of Δ-statistics under various simulated scenarios, and provide empirical examples using data from black, brown and polar bears, the latter also including two ancient polar bear samples from previous studies. Recently DFOIL and one of these ancient samples was used to argue for a dominant polar bear → brown bear introgression direction. However, we find, using both this ancient polar bear and our own, that by far the strongest signal using both DFOIL and Δ-statistics on tree S is actually bidirectional gene flow of indistinguishable direction. Further experiments on trees A and Q instead highlight what were likely two phases of admixture: one with stronger brown bear → polar bear introgression in ancient times, and a more recent phase with predominant polar bear → brown bear directionality. Code and documentation available at https://github.com/KalleLeppala/Delta-statistics.
Methods for detecting gene flow between populations often rely on asymmetry in the average length of particular genealogical branches, with the ABBA-BABA test being a well known example. Currently, asymmetry-based methods cannot be applied to a pair of populations and such analyses are instead performed using model-based methods. Here we investigate genealogical asymmetry under a two-population isolation-migration model. We focus on genealogies where the first coalescence event is between lineages sampled from different populations, as the external branches of these genealogies have equal expected length as long as there is no post-divergence gene flow. We show that unidirectional gene flow breaks this symmetry and results in the recipient population having longer external branches. We derive expectations for the probability of this genealogical asymmetry under the isolation-migration model and propose a simple statistic (Am) to detect it from genome sequence data. Amprovides a two-taxon test for gene flow that only requires a single unphased diploid genome from each population, with no outgroup information. We use analytic expectations and coalescent simulations to explore how recombination, unequal effective population sizes and bidirectional gene flow influence Amand find that the statistic provides unambiguous evidence for gene flow under a continent-island history. We estimate Amfor genome sequence data fromHeliconiusbutterflies andOdocoileusdeer, generating results consistent with previous model-based analyses. Our work highlights a signal of gene flow overlooked to date and provides a method that complements existing approaches for investigating the demographic history of recently diverged populations.
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