Leveraging social networks for identification of people with HIV who are virally unsuppressed

Abstract

Objectives: This study investigates primary peer-referral engagement (PRE) strategies to assess which strategy results in engaging higher numbers of people living with HIV (PLWH) who are virally unsuppressed. Design: We develop a modeling study that simulates an HIV epidemic (transmission, disease progression, and viral evolution) over 6 years using an agent-based model followed by simulating PRE strategies. We investigate two PRE strategies where referrals are based on social network strategies (SNS) or sexual partner contact tracing (SPCT). Methods: We parameterize, calibrate, and validate our study using data from Chicago on Black sexual minority men to assess these strategies for a population with high incidence and prevalence of HIV. For each strategy we calculate the number of PLWH recruited who are undiagnosed or out-of-care and the number of direct or indirect transmissions. Results: SNS and SPCT identified 256.5 (95% C.I.: [234,279]) and 15 (95% C.I.: [7,27]) PLWH, respectively. Of these, SNS identified 159 (95% C.I.: [142,177]) PLWH out-of-care and 32 (95% C.I.: [21, 43]]) PLWH undiagnosed compared to 9 (95% C.I.: [3,18]) and 2 (95% C.I.: [0,5]) for SPCT. SNS identified 15.5 (95% C.I.: [6,25]) and 7.5 (95% C.I.: [2, 11]]) indirect and direct transmission pairs, while SPCT identified 6 (95% C.I.: [0,8]) and 5 (95% C.I.: [0,8]), respectively. Conclusions: With no testing constraints, SNS is the more effective strategy to identify undiagnosed and out-of-care PLWH. Neither strategy is successful at identifying sufficient indirect or direct transmission pairs to investigate transmission networks.