Life expectancy and economic growth: the role of the demographic transition

Cervellati, Matteo; Sunde, Uwe

doi:10.1007/s10887-011-9065-2

Cited by 293 publications

(244 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…We set its value to 0.85. The implied earnings gap of 8% between healthy and unhealthy workers matches the mid-point estimate of Cutler et al 19 …”

Section: Preferencesupporting

confidence: 79%

“…Due to higher childhood morbidity in the first few generations, the TFR is generally higher which causes a population explosion. During 19 In the pre-transition economy where investment in human capital is nil, childhood infections matter only for late-life mortality and ± is irrelevant. the first forty years of the UK and SSA transitions, CMR fell by similar magnitudes (about 46%) but TFR responded more strongly in the UK, an elasticity of 0.82 compared to 0.46 for SSA.…”

Section: The Historical Transitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mortality versus morbidity in the demographic transition

Aksan

Chakraborty

2014

European Economic Review

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The link between the mortality and epidemiological transitions is used to identify the effect of the former on the fertility transition: a mortality transition that is not accompanied by improving morbidity causes slower demographic and economic change. In a model where children may die from infectious disease, childhood health affects human capital and noninfectious-disease-related adult mortality. When child mortality falls from lower prevalence, as it did in western Europe, labor productivity improves, fertility falls and the economy prospers. When it falls mainly from better cures, as it has in sub-Saharan Africa, survivors are less healthy and there is little economic growth. The model can quantitatively explain sub-Saharan Africa's experience. More generally it shows that the commonly used indicator, life expectancy at birth, is a poor predictor of population health and economic growth unless morbidity falls with mortality.

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“…We set its value to 0.85. The implied earnings gap of 8% between healthy and unhealthy workers matches the mid-point estimate of Cutler et al 19 …”

Section: Preferencesupporting

confidence: 79%

Section: The Historical Transitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mortality versus morbidity in the demographic transition

Aksan

Chakraborty

2014

European Economic Review

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“…Without explicitly considering fertility, Acemoglu and Johnson (2007) observe a negative impact of life-expectancy on income per capita. Cervellati and Sunde (2011) demonstrate that this result depends heavily on the selected sample. In particular for countries that have already initiated the fertility transition, they document a causal positive effect of improving life-expectancy on economic growth.…”

Section: Evidencementioning

confidence: 87%

The long-run determinants of fertility: one century of demographic change 1900–1999

2012

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We examine the long-run relationship between fertility, mortality, and income using panel cointegration techniques and the available data for the last century. Our main result is that mortality changes and growth of income contributed to the fertility transition. The fertility reduction triggered by falling mortality, however, is not enough to overcompensate the positive effect of falling mortality on population growth. This means that growth of income per capita is essential to explain the observed secular decline of population growth. These results are robust to alternative estimation methods, potential outliers, sample selection, different measures of mortality, the sample period, the inclusion of education as an explanatory variable, and the use of different data sets. In addition, our causality tests suggest that fertility changes are both cause and consequence of economic development.

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“…For instance, most of these countries have reached quite far in the demographic transition and chronic-degenerative diseases have started to dominate [19]. Kenya, for instance, has started investing in cancer treatment centres and diabetes mellitus care.…”

Section: Future Of Health-related Development Aidmentioning

confidence: 99%