Life-shortening effects of radiological weapons in military operations

Abstract

Military operations can present risks whose origins may be unconventional. As an example, we can mention those within the spectrum of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) defense. This study evaluates, through a computer simulation, an operation in which soldiers face radiological contamination after the triggering of a radiological dispersion device (RDD) in an inhabited urban area. The simulation of the Gaussian scattering (analytical) of the Cs-137 radionuclide is performed using the HotSpot Health Physics codes software. The results of the simulation are evaluated according to two radiological risk domains, referring to high (above 100 mSv) and low integrated radiation doses over 4 continuous days of operation. The radiological risk for developing solid cancer according to specific epidemiological models was estimated. This information served as a basis for estimating the future detriment, that is, the loss of life expectancy (LLE). In addition, the methodology may serve as an instructional resource for tabletop exercises contributing to develop leadership and preparation for decision-making in asymmetric environments.

Human and Environmental Bias Affecting Risk Perception in Military Radiological and Nuclear Operations

“…The analytical modeling may represent an interesting initial approach for radioactive release events where only little information is available. Previous studies from our group have been considered analytical simulation as a convenient approach at early stages of the response 3,4,[14][15] . Analytical modeling has advantages such as processing speed in an ordinary computing environment.…”

“…Although physical damage may occur in the process of triggering an RDD, the incapacitation of inhabited areas by increasing radioactive contamination, and consequently radiological risk 3 , may be appointed as the target situation. The environment contaminated by an RDD is an object of interest in the fields of Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) defense 4 in which complex decisions are ordinarily demanded. Therefore, this study intends to verify possible relationships between environmental variables and human cognitive biases capable of affecting the risk perception overlapping the realtime decision-making.…”

Radiological risk evaluation applied to aerial evacuation procedures in a nuclear scenario

“…Tools for modelling consequences based on the prognosis of the contamination plume have been gaining prominence in support of decision-making [3][4][5]. Usually, this category of method has a high level of complexity.…”