Lifetime projections for the High Plains Aquifer in east-central New Mexico

Rawling, Geoffrey C.; Rinehart, Alex

doi:10.58799/b-162.

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 22 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Farmers in Curry County and other parts of eastern New Mexico, observing drought-stricken fields, are concerned that future increased windiness could result in significant erosion and dust emission, essentially establishing a "new Dust Bowl'' (Albuquerque Journal, Jan. 2, 2021). The rapid decline of the Ogallala Aquifer may force the abandonment of agriculture in parts of eastern New Mexico (Rawling, 2018), which will further increase deflation and dust emission, especially if warm season grasses are unable to effectively recolonize such landscapes in the increasingly warmer and more arid climate (e.g., Winkler et al, 2019). Some researchers attribute the development of large areas characterized by small sand dunes formed around clumps of vegetation in arid regions of south-central New Mexico to increases in grazing pressure coupled with drought on formerly grasslanddominated landscapes .…”

Section: Impacts On Eolian Landscapes and Eolianmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change in New Mexico Over the Next 50 Years: Impacts on Water Resources

Dunbar¹,

Gutzler²,

Pearthree³

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

All water that we use in New Mexico originates as rain or snow falling onto the landscape, which either goes to groundwater or surface water or returns to the atmosphere. Of the precipitation that falls on the state, 1.6% runs off into streams and rivers, and 1.8% infiltrates into the ground, recharging subsurface aquifers. Much larger proportions are transpired by plants (78.9%) or evaporated (17.7%). The impact of climate change on all of these pathways will affect our state's water budget. Notably, because of the larger percentages of water lost to evaporation or transpiration, even very small changes in these factors will result in large changes to runoff and recharge. As mentioned in Chapter 2, the climate will continue to warm over the next 50 years, likely without an increase in precipitation, leading to greater statewide aridity. Hydrological modeling indicates declines in both runoff and recharge going forward, amounting to 3% to 5% per decade for both quantities. Historical trends in runoff indicate significant year-to-year variability, as do trends in soil moisture and recharge. But all are generally decreasing, consistent with the results of climate models that project a drying climate. Combining the historical trends with modeling of future changes, significant decreases in runoff and recharge seem very likely. TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMSClimate is a fundamental driver of ongoing and future vegetation changes in New Mexico. Future changes in vegetation will affect the distribution and abundance of water resources in New Mexico. Major shifts in climate and vegetation across New Mexico's landscapes have occurred in the past, but the scale and rate of recent and projected climate change is probably unprecedented during the past 11,000 years. Recent warming, along with frequent and persistent droughts, have amplified the severity of vegetation disturbance processes like fire, physiological drought stress, and insect outbreaks, driving substantial changes in New Mexico vegetation since the year 2000. Ongoing and projected vegetation changes include growth declines, reduced canopy and ground cover, massive tree mortality episodes, and species changes in dominant vegetation-foreshadowing more severe changes to come if current warming trends continue as projected. Such major alterations of New Mexico vegetation likely will also have substantial ecohydrological feedbacks with New Mexico water resources. Since water-related environmental stresses occur in parallel with water supply shortages for people, such climate-change-driven water stress could lead to increasing conflict between managing declining water available for human use (e.g., irrigation) and retaining "wild" water for the maintenance of historical ecosystems.

show abstract

Section: Impacts On Eolian Landscapes and Eolianmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change in New Mexico Over the Next 50 Years: Impacts on Water Resources

Dunbar¹,

Gutzler²,

Pearthree³

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…This is a conservative estimate of current available groundwater resources in the aquifer system. Groundwater storage has declined significantly since the 1960s according to research done by Rawling and Rinehart (2018), with a cumulative decline of 3 Maf from 1960 to 2010.…”

Section: Water Quantitymentioning

confidence: 99%

A three-dimensional hydrogeologic model from the Pecos Slope to the Southern High Plains, Southeastern New Mexico

Cikoski¹,

Fichera²,

Mamer³

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A Cloud-Based Evaluation of the National Land Cover Database to Support New Mexico’s Food–Energy–Water Systems

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Accurate estimation of land use/land cover (LULC) areas is critical, especially over the semi-arid environments of the southwestern United States where water shortage and loss of rangelands and croplands are affecting the food production systems. This study was conducted within the context of providing an improved understanding of New Mexico’s (NM’s) Food–Energy–Water Systems (FEWS) at the county level. The main goal of this analysis was to evaluate the most important LULC classes for NM’s FEWS by implementing standardized protocols of accuracy assessment and providing bias-corrected area estimates of these classes. The LULC data used in the study was based on National Land Cover Database (NLCD) legacy maps of 1992, 2001, 2006, 2011, and 2016. The analysis was conducted using the cloud-based geospatial processing and modeling tools available from System for Earth Observation Data Access, Processing, and Analysis for Land Monitoring (SEPAL) of the Food and Agricultural Organization. Accuracy assessment, uncertainty analysis, and bias-adjusted area estimates were evaluated by collecting a total of 11,428 reference samples using the Open Foris Collect Earth tool that provided access to high spatial and temporal resolution images available in Google Earth. The reference samples were allocated using a stratified random sampling approach. The results showed an overall accuracy that ranged from 71%–100% in all six study counties. The user’s and producer’s accuracy of most LULC classes were about or above 80%. The obtained bias-adjusted area estimates were higher than those based on pixel counting. The bias-adjusted area estimates simultaneously showed decreasing and increasing trends in grassland and shrubland, respectively in four counties that include Curry, Roosevelt, Lea, and Eddy during the 1992–2016 period. Doña Ana county experienced increasing and decreasing trends in grassland and shrubland areas, respectively. San Juan county experienced decreasing trends in both grassland and shrubland areas. Cultivated cropland areas showed decreasing trends in three counties in southeast NM that rely on groundwater resources including Curry, Roosevelt, and Lea. Similarly, cultivated cropland areas showed increasing trends in the other three counties that rely on surface water or conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources including San Juan, Doña Ana, and Eddy. The use of SEPAL allowed for efficient assessment and production of more accurate bias-adjusted area estimates compared to using pixel counting. Providing such information can help in understanding the behavior of NM’s food production systems including rangelands and croplands, better monitoring and characterizing NM’s FEWS, and evaluating their behavior under changing environmental and climatic conditions. More effort is needed to evaluate the ability of the NLCD data and other similar products to provide more accurate LULC area estimates at local scales.

show abstract

Lifetime projections for the High Plains Aquifer in east-central New Mexico

Cited by 3 publications

References 22 publications

Climate Change in New Mexico Over the Next 50 Years: Impacts on Water Resources

Climate Change in New Mexico Over the Next 50 Years: Impacts on Water Resources

A three-dimensional hydrogeologic model from the Pecos Slope to the Southern High Plains, Southeastern New Mexico

A Cloud-Based Evaluation of the National Land Cover Database to Support New Mexico’s Food–Energy–Water Systems

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About