Lifetime risk of a diagnosis of HIV infection in the United States

Abstract

Purpose To estimate lifetime risk of receiving an HIV diagnosis in the United States if existing infection rates continue. Methods We used mortality, census, and HIV surveillance data for 2010–2014 to calculate age-specific probabilities of an HIV diagnosis. The probabilities were applied to a hypothetical cohort of 10 million live births to estimate lifetime risk. Results Lifetime risk was 1 in 68 for males and 1 in 253 for females. Lifetime risk for men was 1 in 22 for blacks, 1 in 51 for Hispanic/Latinos, and 1 in 140 for whites; and for women was 1 in 54 for blacks, 1 in 256 for Hispanic/Latinas, and 1 in 941 for whites. By risk group, the highest risk was among men who have sex with men (1 in 6) and the lowest was among male heterosexuals (1 in 524). The majority of the states with the highest lifetime risk were in the south. Conclusions The estimates highlight different risks across populations and the need for continued improvements in prevention and treatment. They can also be used to communicate the risk of HIV infection and increase public awareness of HIV.

Using technology to support HIV self-testing among MSM

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A Longitudinal Analysis of Treatment Optimism and HIV Acquisition and Transmission Risk Behaviors Among Black Men Who Have Sex with Men in HPTN 061

“…The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently reported an alarming estimate that 1 in 2 BMSM will be diagnosed with HIV in their lifetime compared with 1 in 4 Hispanic/Latino MSM and 1 in 11 White MSM (2). Of all MSM in the US, Black men accounted for the largest number of estimated new HIV infections in 2014: 38% were among Black men, 26% were among Hispanic/Latino men, and 31% were among White men (3).…”

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“…Gender and sexual minority Latinxs are at particularly high risk for infection. In the U.S., the lifetime risk of HIV infection among Latino men who have sex with men (MSM) is estimated to be 1 in 4 (compared to 1 in 11 among white MSM) (Hess, Hu, Lansky, Mermin, & Hall, 2016). Among all Latino men, the vast majority of HIV infections are attributed to male-to-male sexual contact, ranging from 54% among men born in Puerto Rico to 86% among men born in South America (Gray, Valverde, Tang, Siddiqi, & Hall, 2015).…”