LightGBM Low-Temperature Prediction Model Based on LassoCV Feature Selection

Abstract

Icing disasters on power grid transmission lines can easily lead to major accidents, such as wire breakage and tower overturning, that endanger the safe operation of the power grid. Short-term prediction of transmission line icing relies to a large extent on accurate prediction of daily minimum temperature. This study therefore proposes a LightGBM low-temperature prediction model based on LassoCV feature selection. A data set comprising four meteorological variables was established, and time series autocorrelation coefficients were first used to determine the hysteresis characteristics in relation to the daily minimum temperature. Subsequently, the LassoCV feature selection method was used to select the meteorological elements that are highly related to minimum temperature, with their lag characteristics, as input variables, to eliminate noise in the original meteorological data set and reduce the complexity of the model. On this basis, the LightGBM low-temperature prediction model is established. The model was optimized through grid search and crossvalidation and validated using daily minimum surface temperature data from Yongshan County (station number 56489), Zhaotong City, Yunnan Province. The root mean square error, MAE, and MAPE of the model minimum temperature prediction after feature selection are shown to be 1.305, 0.999, and 0.112, respectively. These results indicate that the LightGBM prediction model is effective at predicting low temperatures and can be used to support short-term icing prediction.

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