Lightning and climate change

Williams, Earle; Montanyà, Joan; Saha, Joydeb; Guha, Anirban

doi:10.1049/pbpo127g_ch15

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…The low values of lightning poleward of 60‐degrees are evident, especially in the summer of the southern hemisphere. However, in the northern hemisphere summer months we do see some lightning that extends further north than the Arctic circle (Holzworth et al., 2021; Saha, Price, Plotnik, & Guha, 2023; Williams et al., 2023).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 92%

Revisiting the Link Between Thunderstorms and Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor

Price,

Plotnik,

Saha

et al. 2023

JGR Atmospheres

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As the Earth's temperatures continue to rise due to increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, a large portion of the warming is due to positive feedbacks from increasing atmospheric water vapor or specific humidity (SH). Some of this water vapor in the boundary layer is transported via deep convection to the upper troposphere (as droplets and ice crystals), moistening the upper troposphere. These small changes in SH in the upper troposphere have a significant impact on the Earth's radiation balance. We compared global daily lightning from the WWLLN data set, and SH data from the ERA5 reanalysis product for 2019, at a spatial resolution of 5°. Our findings show high spatial and temporal correlations between the lightning activity and the SH concentrations in the upper troposphere. The best correlations (r2 = 0.72, p << 0.001) are between lightning activity and UTWV at the 200 mb level (∼12 km altitude), although the correlations with SH at 300 and 400 mb were only slightly lower. Lightning and SH migrate with the seasons north and south of the equator with both parameters showing maxima in the summer hemisphere around 10° latitude. Furthermore, the correlation increases slightly (r2 = 0.73) if a 1‐day lag is considered between the lightning activity and the UTWV. We find that the daily global SH in the upper troposphere can be best estimated using daily global lightning frequency and a power law having an exponent of 0.33.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 92%

Revisiting the Link Between Thunderstorms and Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor

Price,

Plotnik,

Saha

et al. 2023

JGR Atmospheres

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“…Additionally, as the primary trigger of wildfires, lightning shapes the evolution of species and ecosystems (Krause et al, 2014;Pausas & Keeley, 2009). Lightning activity is not only closely associated with mesoscale convective activities (Christian et al, 2003;Price et al, 2007) but also serves as an indicator of short-term climate prediction (Xu, et al, 2023) or climate change (Chen et al, 2021;Reeve & Toumi, 1999;Williams, 1992Williams, , 2005Williams et al, 2019Williams et al, , 2022.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Increase in Lightning Around the South China Sea Under Climate Change

Xu,

Cao,

Lan

et al. 2024

Earth and Space Science

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The impact of global warming on lightning flash rates remains relatively unknown. In this study, the South China Sea (SCS) and the surrounding areas within Southeast Asia were selected to examine the long‐term trend and future projection of lightning activity based on the currently longest satellite‐based lightning data set available and climate models. Our study revealed a reduction in the observed lightning flash rates around the SCS, with a linear trend of −0.11 fl km−2 yr−2 during 1996–2013. In contrast, the precipitation around the SCS exhibited an increasing trend and was negatively correlated with the local lightning flash rate. The sea surface temperature gradient over equatorial Pacific Ocean, latent heat flux over the equatorial Indian Ocean, local convective available potential energy, precipitation and aerosol changes collectively accounted for 82% of the variance in the lightning fluctuations over the SCS and Southeast Asia. Multiple linear regression proxies of lightning flash rates were constructed and applied to the climate models. The models indicated that lightning activity around the SCS is projected to intensify by 10% and 12% by the end of the 21st century under SSP245 and SSP370, respectively.

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“…The main argument behind this statement is the nonlinear relation between lightning activity and surface temperature (Williams, 1992). Temperature perturbations on the order of 1°C have pronounced local effects on cloud electrification which can result in a significant change in lightning frequency (up to 10% per 1°C) depending on the time scale investigated (Williams, 2020; Williams et al., 2023). A dramatic increase (up to 300%) of lightning has been revealed at Arctic latitudes which correlates well with the global temperature anomaly indicating a temperature enhancement from 0.65°C to 0.95°C in the Arctic region from 2010 to 2020 (Holzworth et al., 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A dramatic increase (up to 300%) of lightning has been revealed at Arctic latitudes which correlates well with the global temperature anomaly indicating a temperature enhancement from 0.65°C to 0.95°C in the Arctic region from 2010 to 2020 (Holzworth et al., 2021). However, there is some uncertainty in this result, which is related to the time‐dependent detection efficiency of the applied lightning detection network (Williams et al., 2023). In a more global context it has been shown that the global lightning record from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) shows statistically flat behavior over the 2002–2013 period, which is often termed a “hiatus” in global warming with flat temperature trend (Williams et al., 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Day‐To‐Day Quantification of Changes in Global Lightning Activity Based on Schumann Resonances

et al. 2023

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The importance of lightning has long been recognized from the point of view of climate-related phenomena. However, the detailed investigation of lightning on global scales is currently hindered by the incomplete and spatially uneven detection efficiency of ground-based global lightning detection networks and by the restricted spatio-temporal coverage of satellite observations. We are developing different methods for investigating global lightning activity based on Schumann resonance (SR) measurements. SRs are global electromagnetic resonances of the Earth-ionosphere cavity maintained by the vertical component of lightning. Since charge separation in thunderstorms is gravity-driven, charge is typically separated vertically in thunderclouds, so every lightning flash contributes to the measured SR field. This circumstance makes SR measurements very suitable for climate-related investigations. In this study, 19 days of global lightning activity in January 2019 are analyzed based on SR intensity records from 18 SR stations and the results are compared with independent lightning observations provided by ground-based (WWLLN, GLD360, and ENTLN) and satellite-based (GLM, LIS/OTD) global lightning detection. Daily average SR intensity records from different stations exhibit strong similarity in the investigated time interval. The inferred intensity of global lightning activity varies by a factor of 2-3 on the time scale of 3-5 days which we attribute to continental-scale temperature changes related to cold air outbreaks from polar regions. While our results demonstrate that the SR phenomenon is a powerful tool to investigate global lightning, it is also clear that currently available technology limits the detailed quantitative evaluation of lightning activity on continental scales. Plain Language SummaryLightning is recognized as a climate variable indicating the changing climate of the Earth. Surface temperature changes on the order of 1°C can result in a significant change in lightning frequency. Lightning activity is monitored on a global scale by satellites and by ground-based global lightning detection networks. However, the detection efficiency of these available technologies is limited which restricts the investigation of global lightning activity especially on the day-to-day time scale. In this study, we propose an alternative method to monitor day-to-day changes in global lightning activity based on Schumann resonance measurements and thus we compare SR-based observations with available global lightning monitoring techniques. We show that the overall intensity of global lightning activity can vary considerably (by a factor of 2-3) within a few days, further motivating our efforts to monitor such changes and understand BOZÓKI ET AL.

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Lightning and climate change

Cited by 4 publications

References 0 publications

Revisiting the Link Between Thunderstorms and Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor

Revisiting the Link Between Thunderstorms and Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor

Future Increase in Lightning Around the South China Sea Under Climate Change

Day‐To‐Day Quantification of Changes in Global Lightning Activity Based on Schumann Resonances

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