Linkages between Typologies of Existing Urban Development Patterns and Human Vulnerability to Heat Stress in Lahore

Abstract

The combined effects of global warming, urbanization, and demographic change influence climate risk for urban populations, particularly in metropolitan areas with developing economies. To inform climate change adaptation and spatial planning, it is important to study urban climatic hazards and populations at risk in relation to urban growth trends and development patterns. However, this relationship has not been adequately investigated in studies dedicated to climate vulnerability. This study identifies the typologies of development patterns within Lahore, Pakistan, investigates the heat vulnerability of residents at a neighborhood scale, and establishes a relationship between both of these factors. We identified urban clusters with diverse development patterns. Fourteen context- and site-specific indicators were selected to construct a human heat vulnerability index. Weighted sum, cluster analysis, and ANOVA test of variance were conducted to analyze the data. Our results demonstrate that development patterns significantly influence human vulnerability to heat stress, e.g., vulnerability is higher in older cities and undeveloped neighborhoods with less diverse land uses. These findings are essential for informing policy-makers, decision-makers and spatial planners about proactive adaptation planning in dynamic urban environments.

Building Resilient Cities: A Comprehensive Review of Climate Change Adaptation Indicators for Urban Design

“…Based on the literature review, the risks with more importance at urban level are (i) climate change (n = 39), (ii) urban heat (n = 32), and (iii) flood (n = 17). Therefore, municipal governments have regarded the enhancement of urban resilience as a crucial strategy [38].…”

“…For the analysis of social vulnerability to the heat island effect, some scientists create maps to detect areas with higher vulnerability, considering climatic conditions, exposure, and population sensitivity [21,26,30,38,62].…”

Assessment of human heat vulnerability of different Local Climate Zones in Lahore Coupling remote sensing and socioeconomic data

“…On the other hand, for the assessment of human heat vulnerability, various demographic and socioeconomic factors are aggregated and an index is computed using a weighted sum. A detailed description of the indicators used and their computation method can be seen in this reference [30]. The second step relates to the preprocessing and transformation of data to ensure consistency for interlinking.…”

“…It has been found that these studies mainly focus on physical and metrological interdependence instead of human dynamics. However, several studies underscore the importance of population profiles and socioeconomic factors for adaptation planning [24,30]. This study attempts to bring the human dimension into focus while analyzing LCZs.…”

Exploring the link between socio-economic and physical structure in cities to inform heat adaptation options: the case of Stuttgart

“…Admittedly, adaptation to the effects of climate change is representing key principles and simultaneously challenges for spatial planning. Among diverse climate-related hazards, heat stress is exacerbated by the globally rising temperatures and also affected by the local climate, physical and socio-economic factors; this can pose a significant risk to human health and affect daily activitiesBesides the physical and spatial factors such as land-use, building height and density [1][2][3], a number of studies have been dedicated to the importance of socioeconomic factors in forming urban structures and their contribution to intensifying the urban heat-related effects in European countries and worldwide [1,[4][5][6][7]. Some examples of these factors that increase human susceptibility to heat include age [8][9][10], existing health issues [11][12][13] and income level [14] [15].…”