Linking climate change to soil loss estimation in the Kosi river basin, India

Abstract

This study assessed the spatio-temporal variability of soil loss based on rainfall–runoff erosivity in the context of climate change in the Kosi river basin. The observed rainfall data (1985–2017) were used for past and present analyses, and the projected rainfall data (2020–2100) interpolated for various general circulation models (GCMs) were used for future analysis. The results of rainfall analysis for the projected period show a maximum percentage variation of 26.2% for a particular GCM and an average of 9.4% increase in the rainfall data from all selected GCMs considering three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We also evaluated the implications of change in the soil loss due to changes in the rainfall pattern and crop management factor for three time slices. The results for the projected time period showed a concomitant increase in the average soil loss of −13.03–10.39% with respect to the baseline. The average soil loss results for the time period of 2020–2100 are also compared with the average soil loss for each RCP scenario and found very meager changes in the area of soil erosion. The results due to climate change aid in prioritizing the areas with suitable conservation support practices.

Spatiotemporal Rainfall Dynamics in Kosi Basin Using Wavelet Analysis

“…It is concluded from the wavelet power spectrum analysis for all the selected gauging stations for the selected time period shows that maximum power spectrum is observed in the 8-16 band. A similar observation in the variance also seen towards the southwest of Kosi basin (Kursela, Murliganj, Birpur and Nirmali, see Figure 1 in [30]).…”

“…Concentration of rainfall occurs high in the monsoon season (from May to October) within the study area. The maximum average annual rainfall is 2,711.95mm obtained in Galgalia, and the least is 1,249.13mm in Bhimnagar [30].…”

“…There are 10 districts within the Kosi river basin while the degree of slope varies from 0 to 35 o . The spatial variation of rainfall and subsequently its effect in the soil erosion in the Kosi river was well studied in [30]. The main reason to choose this study area is that it is very vulnerable to the adverse effects of floods.…”

“…Authors in [32] utilized the precipitation data to look into the effects of teleconnections on extreme precipitation for a period of 113 years. For the current study, the daily rainfall data were collected from India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune for a duration of 33 years (1985 -2017) for 6 raingauge stations (Kursela, Galgalia, Murliganj, Nirmali, Bhimnagar, and Bahadurganj) and 1985-2015 for Birpur station [30]. Concentration of rainfall occurs high in the monsoon season (from May to October) within the study area.…”

ANN and GRNN-Based Coupled Model for Flood Inundation Mapping of the Punpun River Basin

“…In a country like India, where most farmers rely on monsoons, good quality and quantity of water are very necessary for their crops. So, it is necessary to have advanced knowledge of the real amount of rainfall [2][3][4][5]. As several states in India are experiencing drought at the same time that many other states experience flooding, it is necessary to use an accurate and effective rainfall forecast model.…”