Linking Complexity and Sustainability Theories: Implications for Modeling Sustainability Transitions

Abstract

Abstract:In this paper, we deploy a complexity theory as the foundation for integration of different theoretical approaches to sustainability and develop a rationale for a complexity-based framework for modeling transitions to sustainability. We propose a framework based on a comparison of complex systems' properties that characterize the different theories that deal with transitions to sustainability. We argue that adopting a complexity theory based approach for modeling transitions requires going beyond deterministic frameworks; by adopting a probabilistic, integrative, inclusive and adaptive approach that can support transitions. We also illustrate how this complexity-based modeling framework can be implemented; i.e., how it can be used to select modeling techniques that address particular properties of complex systems that we need to understand in order to model transitions to sustainability. In doing so, we establish a complexity-based approach towards modeling sustainability transitions that caters for the broad range of complex systems' properties that are required to model transitions to sustainability.

Measuring the Complexity of Urban Form and Design

“…It can contribute to lively, enjoyable, walkable, healthy, and vital neighborhoods (Jacobs 1961;Macdonald 2002;Carlson et al 2012;McGreevy and Wilson 2016). It implies resilience, robustness, connectivity, and access, playing into wider debates about sustainability and resource efficiency (Peter and Swilling 2014;Pugh 2014;Wells 2014). Complexity can be emancipatory (Byrne 2003) -improving social equity, spatial distributional justice, adaptiveness, and social contact and exchange (cf.…”

Rethinking Strategic Sustainability Planning for the Electricity Sector in South Africa

“…As stated previously, wicked problems, related to system failures, 4 are characterised as complex, as they are embedded in societal structures; and they are uncertain owing to their hardly reducible structural uncertainty [18,19]. Peter and Swilling [17] define the role of complexity theory as an overarching way of thinking, while understanding and acting on persistent problems, especially those relating to the process of transitions to sustainability. Persistent problems also tend to be difficult to manage (owing to the number of actors/stakeholders with diverse interests and objectives), hard to grasp (as they are difficult to interpret), and poorly structured [3,16,19].…”

“…In this context, Rotmans and Loorbach [19], Loorbach [16], and Peter and Swilling [17] propose the recognition of certain principles to define a system of governance based on complexity. The principles include flexibility and adjustability at a system level, with the dynamics of the system creating feasible and non-feasible means, and insights into how the system works, as an essential precondition for effective management.…”

“…It would also assist in contextualising, framing, and integrating various sustainability-based 2 Complexity theory is the theory of multi-agent systems. Agency is attributed to all systems, sub-systems, and sub-system components, and not just to actors within a system [17]. 3 Systems theory refers to a universal language to address complex patterns of interaction between different components in complex adaptive systems and offers a conceptual lens through which to analyse and understand societal and governance complexity [18].…”

“…theories with associated modelling methodologies for assessment, to address diverse and complex challenges, while further matching the adaptive management requirements (pluri-focal, multiscale, multi-level, and adaptive) for transitions to sustainability [17,18,19]). …”