Linking source with consequences of coastal storm impacts for climate change and risk reduction scenarios for Mediterranean sandy beaches

Sanuy, Marc; Duo, Enrico; Jäger, W.; Ciavola, Paolo; Jiménez, José A.

doi:10.5194/nhess-18-1825-2018

Cited by 32 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…The delta coastline has been eroding during the last several decades as the net result of the littoral drift and the decrease of the Tordera river sediment output, with maximum measured retreats of approximately 120 m Jiménez et al [31]. The combination of a progressively narrowing beach protecting a low-lying hinterland and this being mainly occupied by campsites makes this area a hotspot for storm-induced hazards (Jiménez et al [7]) with different consequences depending on storm characteristics and beach morphology at the time of impact (see e.g., Sanuy et al [32]). As Jiménez et al [31] noted, under former accretive-stable deltaic conditions only extreme storms were able to exceed the capacity of protection provided by wide beaches, but under present medium/long-term erosion conditions, smaller storms have become able to exceed the dissipation capacity of the narrower beaches, increasing the frequency of storm-induced problems (e.g., Jiménez et al [3]).…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of Storm-Induced Hazards in a Highly Curvilinear Coastline to Changing Storm Directions. The Tordera Delta Case (NW Mediterranean)

Sanuy

Jiménez

2019

Water

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Extreme coastal storms, especially when incident in areas with densely urbanized coastlines, are one of the most damaging forms of natural disasters. The main hazards originating from coastal storms are inundation and erosion, and their magnitude and extent needs to be accurately assessed for effective management of coastal risk. The use of state-of-art morphodynamic process-based models is becoming standard, with most being applied to straight coastlines with gentle slopes. In this study, the XBeach model is used to assess the coastal response of a curvilinear sensitive deltaic coast with coarse sediment and steep slopes (intermediate-reflective conditions). The tested hypothesis is that changes in wave direction may cause large variations in the magnitude of storm-induced hazards. The model is tested against field data available for the Sant Esteve Storm (December 2008), obtaining an overall BSS (Brier Skill Score) score on the emerged morphological response of 0.68. Later, the 2008 event is used as baseline scenario to create synthetic events covering the range from NE to S. The obtained results show that storm-induced hazards along a highly curvilinear coast are very sensitive to changes in wave direction. Therefore, even under climate scenarios of relatively steady storminess, a potential shift in wave direction may significantly change hazard conditions and thus, need to be accounted for in robust damage risk assessments.

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Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of Storm-Induced Hazards in a Highly Curvilinear Coastline to Changing Storm Directions. The Tordera Delta Case (NW Mediterranean)

Sanuy

Jiménez

2019

Water

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“…An additional limitation on the forcing input is represented by the use of symmetric triangular synthetic storms to describe the temporal evolution of the event. Although it is a commonly adopted approach in numerical coastal studies (e.g., McCall et al, 2010;Plomaritis et al, 2018;Sanuy et al, 2018), it represents another source of uncertainty. Finally, the numerical models are applied in default mode, except for the parameters previously described.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The chosen curve is the one developed for single-family detached buildings, that shows the highest derivative. The thresholds summarized in Table 4 are defined following the approach adopted by Sanuy et al (2018) for the Italian site Lido degli Estensi-Spina (Ferrara province, Figure 1), which includes part of HS1. In Sanuy et al (2018), site-specific damage levels are defined based on the damage factor value (here translated into water depths following the adopted curve) in agreement with regional coastal managers.…”

Section: Direct Impacts To Assetsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The thresholds summarized in Table 4 are defined following the approach adopted by Sanuy et al (2018) for the Italian site Lido degli Estensi-Spina (Ferrara province, Figure 1), which includes part of HS1. In Sanuy et al (2018), site-specific damage levels are defined based on the damage factor value (here translated into water depths following the adopted curve) in agreement with regional coastal managers. The thresholds used for building collapse (Karvonen et al, 2000) and direct impacts to the transport network (Penning-Rowsell et al, 2013) are the default values included in the model, because it was not possible to retrieve such information from local, regional or national sources (database, literature, reports).…”

Section: Direct Impacts To Assetsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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From Hazard to Consequences: Evaluation of Direct and Indirect Impacts of Flooding Along the Emilia-Romagna Coastline, Italy

2019

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Managing coastal flood risk at the regional scale requires a prioritization of economic resources along the shoreline. Advanced modeling assessment and open-source tools are now available to support transparent and rigorous risk evaluation and to inform managers and stakeholders in their choices. However, the issues lay in data availability and data richness to estimate coastal vulnerability and impacts. The Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF) has been developed as part of the Resilience Increasing Strategies for Coasts -Toolkit (RISC-KIT) EU FP7 project. The framework provides two levels of analysis. In the first phase, a coastal index approach is applied to identify a restricted number of potential critical areas for different hazards (i.e., erosion and flooding). In the second phase, an integrated hazard and impact modeling approach is applied in the critical areas to assess the direct and indirect impacts of storm events using a matrix-based approach and a systemic analysis. The framework was tested on the coastline of the Emilia-Romagna region (northern Italy) for two probabilistic coastal storms with representative return periods of 10 and 100 years. In this work, the application of the second phase of the CRAF is presented for two sites, Lido degli Estensi-Spina (Ferrara province) and Milano Marittima (Ravenna province). The hazard modeling of floods was implemented using a coupling between XBeach and Lisflood-FP. The Integrated Disruption Assessment (INDRA) model was applied to quantify direct and indirect impacts. The impact assessment focused on household's financial recovery, business disruption and financial recovery, transport network disruption and risk to life. The considered business sector comprised the key economic activities related to the sun-and-beach tourism, which is one of the main drivers of the regional economy. A Multi-Criteria Analysis was applied to support decision-makers to identify the most critical site. The importance of detailed physical and socio-economic data collected at the regional and local levels is highlighted and discussed, together with the importance to involve different stakeholders in the process (e.g., through interviews and surveys). The limitations of the applied approach due to data quality and availability and to the assumptions introduced in the hazard and disruption models are highlighted.

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“…The zone was declared a National (Italian) Nature reserve in 1981, as part of the Po Delta Regional Park, and the Sites of European Community Importance under Directive 92/43/EEC. The site was an extremely dynamic area, under erosion in the last decade and exposed to several climate change related effects, e.g., higher occurrence of flooding and beach retreat [18,19].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Coupled Wave-2D Hydrodynamics Modeling at the Reno River Mouth (Italy) under Climate Change Scenarios

Gaeta

Bonaldo

Samaras

et al. 2018

Water

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This work presents the results of the numerical study implemented for the natural area of Lido di Spina, a touristic site along the Italian coast of the North Adriatic Sea, close to the mouth of River Reno. High-resolution simulations of nearshore dynamics are carried out under climate change conditions estimated for the site. The adopted modeling chain is based on the implementation of multiple-nested, open-source numerical models. More specifically, the coupled wave-2D hydrodynamics runs, using the open-source TELEMAC suite, are forced at the offshore boundary by waves resulting from the wave model (SWAN) simulations for the Adriatic Sea, and sea levels computed following a joint probability analysis approach. The system simulates present-day scenarios, as well as conditions reflecting the high IPCC greenhouse concentration trajectory named RCP8.5 under predicted climate changes. Selection of sea storms directed from SE (Sirocco events) and E-NE (Bora events) is performed together with Gumbel analysis, in order to define ordinary and extreme sea conditions. The numerical results are here presented in terms of local parameters such as wave breaking position, alongshore currents intensity and direction and flooded area, aiming to provide insights on how climate changes may impact hydrodynamics at a site scale. Although the wave energy intensity predicted for Sirocco events is expected to increase only slightly, modifications of the wave dynamics, current patterns, and inland flooding induced by climate changes are expected to be significant for extreme conditions, especially during Sirocco winds, with an increase in the maximum alongshore currents and in the inundated area compared to past conditions. coastal planning and decision assessment, accounting for typical features at a coastal engineering scale, such as nonlinear processes of wave propagation and interactions between offshore and coastal structures and the inclusion of inshore boundary conditions, such as river run-off.In recent years, research efforts have focused on the development of methodological frameworks based on advanced numerical modeling [5,6], which can be used to study the effects of future climate change scenarios affecting both the intensity and frequency of storm-surge events, wave climate, currents, sea-level rise, and riverine sediment discharge. Since the above-mentioned phenomena may increase the flood risk for coastal areas, the understanding of their dynamics at coastal scale becomes essential for the design of climate-change resilience protection and, in general, spatial planning activities.Thus, the development of multipurpose measures mitigating erosion and inundation and increasing coastal defense efficiency requires a challenging prediction of sea forcings variation induced by the estimated effects of climate change.Recently, regional future scenarios accounting for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sea-level projections at 2100 characterized by Representative Concentration Pathways equal to +8.5 W/m 2 (here...

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Linking source with consequences of coastal storm impacts for climate change and risk reduction scenarios for Mediterranean sandy beaches

Cited by 32 publications

References 68 publications

Sensitivity of Storm-Induced Hazards in a Highly Curvilinear Coastline to Changing Storm Directions. The Tordera Delta Case (NW Mediterranean)

Sensitivity of Storm-Induced Hazards in a Highly Curvilinear Coastline to Changing Storm Directions. The Tordera Delta Case (NW Mediterranean)

From Hazard to Consequences: Evaluation of Direct and Indirect Impacts of Flooding Along the Emilia-Romagna Coastline, Italy

Coupled Wave-2D Hydrodynamics Modeling at the Reno River Mouth (Italy) under Climate Change Scenarios

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