Linking the Determinants of Air Passenger Flows and Aviation Related Carbon Emissions: A European Study

Abstract

Increasing global concern regarding the negative consequences of climate change will see the introduction of comprehensive policy governing aviation-related carbon emissions. With demand for air travel set to accelerate over the next three decades airlines are faced with the task of catering to increased demand while simultaneously achieving emission reductions. In this study we identify the determinants of air passenger flows and flight frequency and assess their impact on carbon emissions and carbon efficiency. Confining our analysis to the European market, we employ Fixed-Effects (FEIV) and Random-Effects (REIV) instrumental variables modelling techniques to 150 intra-Europe routes and find that the factors that are significant in influencing the operational planning decisions of an airline often lead to carbon inefficiencies. Our findings have important implications for both airlines and policymakers. For airlines, we show how the decisions they make to optimise operations can have negative environmental consequences, while we make suggestions as to how policymakers can incentivise airlines to achieve emission reductions.

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“…They pointed out that distance and aircraft size had a positive effect on CO 2 emissions from aviation. However, contrary to Yue and Byrne [5], and somewhat counterintuitively, Lo et al [6] found that fuel price and CO 2 emissions were positively correlated.…”

“…Williams and Noland [4] demonstrated that long-distance flights offered lower CO 2 per km rates than shorter ones. Yue and Byrne [5] analyzed various factors affecting airline carbon emissions in European aviation. They indicated that CO 2 emissions were positively correlated with the number of passengers and flights.…”

“…Moreover, carbon emissions decreased when fuel prices rose. Lo et al [6] used similar variables to those employed by Yue and Byrne [5], but they specifically focused on Lombardy, Italy. They pointed out that distance and aircraft size had a positive effect on CO 2 emissions from aviation.…”

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