Background
Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is characterised by neurovascular degeneration as a result of chronic hyperglycaemia. Proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) is the most serious complication of DR and can lead to total (central and peripheral) visual loss. PDR is characterised by the presence of abnormal new blood vessels, so‐called “new vessels,” at the optic disc (NVD) or elsewhere in the retina (NVE). PDR can progress to high‐risk characteristics (HRC) PDR (HRC‐PDR), which is defined by the presence of NVD more than one‐fourth to one‐third disc area in size plus vitreous haemorrhage or pre‐retinal haemorrhage, or vitreous haemorrhage or pre‐retinal haemorrhage obscuring more than one disc area. In severe cases, fibrovascular membranes grow over the retinal surface and tractional retinal detachment with sight loss can occur, despite treatment. Although most, if not all, individuals with diabetes will develop DR if they live long enough, only some progress to the sight‐threatening PDR stage.
Objectives
To determine risk factors for the development of PDR and HRC‐PDR in people with diabetes and DR.
Search methods
We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL; which contains the Cochrane Eyes and Vision Trials Register; 2022, Issue 5), Ovid MEDLINE, and Ovid Embase. The date of the search was 27 May 2022. Additionally, the search was supplemented by screening reference lists of eligible articles. There were no restrictions to language or year of publication.
Selection criteria
We included prospective or retrospective cohort studies and case‐control longitudinal studies evaluating prognostic factors for the development and progression of PDR, in people who have not had previous treatment for DR. The target population consisted of adults (≥18 years of age) of any gender, sexual orientation, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and geographical location, with non‐proliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR) or PDR with less than HRC‐PDR, diagnosed as per standard clinical practice. Two review authors independently screened titles and abstracts, and full‐text articles, to determine eligibility; discrepancies were resolved through discussion. We considered prognostic factors measured at baseline and any other time points during the study and in any clinical setting. Outcomes were evaluated at three and eight years (± two years) or lifelong.
Data collection and analysis
Two review authors independently extracted data from included studies using a data extraction form that we developed and piloted prior to the data collection stage. We resolved any discrepancies through discussion. We used the Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool to assess risk of bias. We conducted meta‐analyses in clinically relevant groups using a random‐effects approach. We reported hazard ratios (HR), odds ratios (OR), and risk ratios (RR) separately for each available ...