Little time left to reverse emissions—Growing hope despite disappointing CO₂ trend

Abstract

The 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2018) concluded that even if the global community is able to keep temperature change below 1.5-2.0 C by the end of the 21st century, the impacts on global ecosystems are likely to be profound. The message of that report echoed a deep concern on the future, if the emissions could not be put on a downward track to reach the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement from December 2015 (Paris Agreement, 2015). The scientific foundation of the urgency to cut emissions is univocal. The urgency of actions was recently captured by a statement of Hans Bruyninckx, the Executive Director of European Environment Agency (EEA), who said "We have a narrow window of opportunity in the next decade to scale up measures to protect nature, lessen the impacts of climate change and radically reduce our consumption of natural resources" (European Environment Agency, 2019).Our political systems have unfortunately not been able to properly respond to the "climate-SOS" signaled by the scientific community, individuals, and businesses. The latest stand of global emissions indicates that we are far above the critical path and that the global temperature may rise by 3.2 C. The greenhouse gas emissions briefly stabilized during 2014-2016, but they are again on rise. Year 2019 as well as the last year 2018 will be record years in emissions. These are alarming news because every year of postponing emission cuts will mean that faster and steeper cuts will be necessary in the coming years. The UN Environmental Programme estimates that the required cuts in emissions are now 2.7% per year from 2020 for the 2 C goal and 7.6% per year on average for the 1.5 C goal (UNEP, 2019). The magnitude of the cuts required may grow to such a level, if the emissions will not turn downwards, that our economic systems may be unable to handle such rapid changes.Had we succeeded to peak the emissions 10 years ago, the required cuts would have been 0.7 and 3.3% per year on average (UNEP, 2019). The message is clear: the time to prevent the climate catastrophe is running out. There is little time left to act. We have to do our outmost to keep the carbon out of the atmosphere, but we may need soon to voice stronger for adoption measures as well to mitigate the consequent human catastrophe ahead.But there are a number of positive developments that raise hope that we could still have chances to win the climate combat. Importantly, the political awareness of people around the world is increasing demanding those in power to undertake the necessary steps to cut emissions. Youth around the world are standing loudly up to protest laissez-faire politics. In Europe, the climate is a major theme in parliamentary elections, and the new European Commission has promised to cut emissions beyond the earlier plans and establish a European Green Deal policy soon. Similarly, the bold policy portfolio adopted by New York City for its own "Green New Deal" underscores the vitalit...

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