Lives and livelihoods: Estimates of the global mortality and poverty effects of the Covid-19 pandemic

Decerf, Benoit; Ferreira, Francisco H. G.; Mahler, Dan; Sterck, Olivier

doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105561

Cited by 71 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Conversely, the effectiveness of lockdowns targeted at the elderly population are considerably more effective. The finding that the tradeoff between livelihoods and lives lost underlying these findings hinges on a country's income level is supported by empirical evidence in Decerf et al (2020). Taking a perspective on lockdown in emerging economies, Arellano et al (2020) show that the risk of a debt crisis may seriously inhibit lockdown polices and conclude that relaxing the tradeoff between health and debt crises makes a strong case for debt relief.…”

Section: Covid-19mentioning

confidence: 92%

Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses

Bloom

Kühn

Prettner

2022

Journal of Economic Literature

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We discuss and review literature on the macroeconomic effects of epidemics and pandemics since the late twentieth century. First, we cover the role of health in driving economic growth and well-being and discuss standard frameworks for assessing the economic burden of infectious diseases. Second, we sketch a general theoretical framework to evaluate the trade-offs policy makers must consider when addressing infectious diseases and their macroeconomic repercussions. In so doing, we emphasize the dependence of economic consequences on (i) disease characteristics; (ii) inequalities among individuals in terms of susceptibility, preferences, and income; and (iii) cross-country heterogeneities in terms of their institutional and macroeconomic environments. Third, we study pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical policies aimed at mitigating and preventing infectious diseases and their macroeconomic repercussions. Fourth, we discuss the health toll and economic impacts of five infectious diseases: HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, influenza, and COVID-19. Although major epidemics and pandemics can take an enormous human toll and impose a staggering economic burden, early and targeted health and economic policy interventions can often mitigate both to a substantial degree. (JEL E20, H50, I12, I14, I15, I18, J17)

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Section: Covid-19mentioning

confidence: 92%

Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses

Bloom

Kühn

Prettner

2022

Journal of Economic Literature

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“…These social, physical, and microbial threats have led to substantial social isolation, loss, and human suffering [ 3 , 4 , 5 ]. These threats also have greatly disrupted peoples’ daily lives and routines: whereas abhorrent displays of police brutality and racism have brought people to the streets to fight social injustice and inequality [ 6 ], the widespread danger of contracting COVID-19 forced people to avoid loved ones, friends, and coworkers, even as they passed away [ 7 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Social Safety Theory: Understanding social stress, disease risk, resilience, and behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond

Slavich

2022

Current Opinion in Psychology

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Many of life’s most impactful experiences involve either social safety (e.g., acceptance, affiliation, belonging, inclusion) or social threat (e.g., conflict, isolation, rejection, exclusion). According to Social Safety Theory, these experiences greatly impact human health and behavior because a fundamental goal of the brain and immune system is to keep the body biologically safe. To achieve this crucial goal, social threats likely gained the ability to activate anticipatory neural-immune responses that would have historically benefited reproduction and survival; the presence of social safety, in turn, likely dampened these responses. Viewing positive and negative social experiences through this lens affords a biologically based evolutionary account for why certain stressors are particularly impactful. It also provides an integrated, multi-level framework for investigating the biopsychosocial roots of psychopathology, health disparities, aging, longevity, and interpersonal cognition and behavior. Ultimately, this work has the potential to inform new strategies for reducing disease risk and promoting resilience.

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“…[ 17 – 20 ] The economic downturns of 2020 have also been projected to reverse a sustained trend of decline in global poverty, with an estimated 42–66 million additional children falling into extreme poverty on top of the estimated 386 million children in extreme poverty in 2019. [ 21 , 22 ] Additional estimates suggest that the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic could reverse the past 2 to 3 years of progress in infant mortality. [ 22 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimated impact of the 2020 economic downturn on under-5 mortality for 129 countries

et al. 2022

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In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), economic downturns can lead to increased child mortality by affecting dietary, environmental, and care-seeking factors. This study estimates the potential loss of life in children under five years old attributable to economic downturns in 2020. We used a multi-level, mixed effects model to estimate the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and under-5 mortality rates (U5MRs) specific to each of 129 LMICs. Public data were retrieved from the World Bank World Development Indicators database and the United Nations World Populations Prospects estimates for the years 1990-2020. Country-specific regression coefficients on the relationship between child mortality and GDP were used to estimate the impact on U5MR of reductions in GDP per capita of 5%, 10%, and 15%. A 5% reduction in GDP per capita in 2020 was estimated to cause an additional 282,996 deaths in children under 5 in 2020. At 10% and 15%, recessions led to higher losses of under-5 lives, increasing to 585,802 and 911,026 additional deaths, respectively. Nearly half of all the potential under-5 lives lost in LMICs were estimated to occur in Sub-Saharan Africa. Because most of these deaths will likely be due to nutrition and environmental factors amenable to intervention, countries should ensure continued investments in food supplementation, growth monitoring, and comprehensive primary health care to mitigate potential burdens.

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Lives and livelihoods: Estimates of the global mortality and poverty effects of the Covid-19 pandemic

Abstract: published by Elsevier. It is posted here by agreement between them. Changes resulting from the publishing process-such as editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms-may not be reflected in this version of the text.

Cited by 71 publications

References 41 publications

Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses

Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses

Social Safety Theory: Understanding social stress, disease risk, resilience, and behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond

Estimated impact of the 2020 economic downturn on under-5 mortality for 129 countries

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