Lives saved and hospitalizations averted by COVID-19 vaccination in New York City: a modeling study

Shoukat, Affan; Vilches, Thomas N.; Moghadas, Seyed M.; Sah, Pratha; Schneider, Eric C.; Shaff, Jaimie; Ternier, Alexandra; Chokshi, Dave A.; Galvani, Alison P.

doi:10.1016/j.lana.2021.100085

Cited by 49 publications

(65 citation statements)

References 39 publications

(38 reference statements)

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“…It has subsequently increased vaccine hesitancy and lower vaccination rates in selected populations, such as the Polish. Despite various initiatives to communicate vaccine science to the general public [ 7 ], accumulating evidence that COVID-19 vaccination is saving lives and can decrease the overwhelming of healthcare systems [ 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 ], only 55.5% of the Polish population (including 64% adults) was vaccinated at the end of 2021. Studies have shown that apart from beliefs in conspiracy theories, the main reasons for vaccine hesitancy included fear of acute side effects and feeling physically fit and healthy [ 12 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does Hospitalization Change the Perception of COVID-19 Vaccines among Unvaccinated Patients?

et al. 2022

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The COVID-19 vaccination has been the subject of unprecedented misinformation, false news, and public concerns. This study presents a unique analysis comprising persons who were not vaccinated and became ill. It investigates reasons for not vaccinating and evaluates how the personal experience of COVID-19 affected further attitudes and decisions related to health. The study included 730 consecutive unvaccinated patients hospitalized in 12 centers in Poland during the autumn 2021 pandemic wave. The most frequent reason behind the refusal to receive the vaccine was concern over the adverse effects, disbelief that the vaccine was sufficiently tested, and one’s conviction that COVID-19 will not affect a patient. Online information, friends, spouse, children/grandchildren, and other family members were most often the source of discouragement from vaccination. Most individuals regretted their decision not to receive a vaccine (66.0%), declared to promote COVID-19 vaccination after discharge (64.0%), and to receive a COVID-19 vaccine in the time recommended for convalescents (69.5%). Individuals expressing no regrets of vaccine refusal more frequently revealed conspiracy beliefs. The study shows that personal experience with severe COVID-19 can influence the perception of vaccination, but approximately one-third of unvaccinated hospitalized patients still appear to express vaccine hesitancy.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does Hospitalization Change the Perception of COVID-19 Vaccines among Unvaccinated Patients?

et al. 2022

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“…The model (2.7) is an extended version of numerous COVID-19 transmission models in the literature that consider the dynamics of multiple co-circulating variants, such as those in [46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55] by, inter alia, including:…”

Section: Delta Variantmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1. Incorporating a booster dose (this was not considered in [46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55]).…”

Section: Delta Variantmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…4. Explicitly including the impact of voluntary testing to detect infected individuals who do not have clinical symptoms of the disease (this was not done in [46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55] ). It should be stated that detection of infected individuals who do not display clinical symptoms of the disease (i.e., those in the exposed/latent class, E, presymptomatic class, P , and asymptomatic class, A) is crucial in allowing the model to fit the daily confirmed case data reasonably well (we would not get a good model fitting, with respect to the daily confirmed case data) if this feature is not included in the model).…”

Section: Delta Variantmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Unraveling the dynamics of the Omicron and Delta variants of the 2019 coronavirus in the presence of vaccination, mask usage, and antiviral treatment

Ngonghala

Taboe

Gumel

2022

Preprint

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Multiple safe and effective vaccines and antiviral drugs have been approved or authorized for use against the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. The effectiveness of these and other intervention measures is threatened by the emergence of numerous SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern. We present a model for studying the transmission dynamics of two of these variants (Delta and Omicron) in the presence of vaccination, treatment of individuals with clinical symptoms of the disease and the use of face masks in the community. The model was fitted using daily case data for the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States corresponding to the period starting from when Omicron first emerged (end of November 2021) to date. It is shown, based on simulating the model with the current COVID-19 data, that the reproduction number of the Delta variant (denoted by Rvd) is much smaller than one (Rvd = 0.28), while that of Omicron (denoted by Rvo) is approximately equal to unity (Rvo = 0.96). This shows that the Delta variant has essentially died out, and that Omicron is currently the predominant variant of concern in the United States. Furthermore, if the current baseline levels of the control measures being implemented in the United States are maintained, the Omicron variant will also be on a rapid decline (towards elimination). The analysis and simulations of the calibrated model show that vaccine-derived immunity can be achieved in the United States if at least 68% of the population is fully-vaccinated with either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine. It is shown that the COVID-19 pandemic can be eliminated in the United States by June of 2022 if the current baseline level of the proportion of individuals that is fully-vaccinated is increased by about 20%. The threshold vaccination coverage needed to achieve the vaccine-derived herd immunity decreases if the vaccination program is combined with a face mask use strategy, particularly one that emphasizes the use of moderate to high quality masks (e.g., surgical or N95 masks). Greater reduction in disease burden (in comparison to the baseline scenario) are recorded if the very high quality N95 masks are prioritized in the community, followed by the moderately-effective surgical masks and then the lowly-effective cloth masks. We also showed that having high percentage of the populace wearing the moderately-effective surgical mask is more beneficial to the community than having low percentage of the populace wearing the highly-effective N95 masks (this result does not hold for the case when cloth masks compliance is compared with that of N95 masks). However, if a certain (fixed) percentage is to give up masking, our study showed that it is more beneficial if they give up wearing surgical masks and not N95 masks (in other words, in a head-to-head comparison, N95 is always superior than surgical mask). This study showed that waning natural and vaccine-derived immunity (if considered individually) offer marginal impact on disease burden, except for the case when they wane at a much faster rate (e.g., within three months), in comparison to the baseline (estimated to be within 9 months to a year). Greater reduction or increase in disease burden is recorded if both the vaccine-derived and natural immunity wane at the same time (rather than the case when we considered only one of them varying, while the other is at baseline). For instance, if both vaccine-derived and natural immunity wane within three months, a 14% increase in the peak daily cases will be recorded, in comparison to the baseline. For this case, where immunity wanes within three months, our study predicts another (but milder) Omicron wave in the United States that peaks around July 2022 (with the peak 72% lower than the original Omicron peak). Under this (fast waning) scenario, our study suggests that a fourth dose of the two mRNA vaccines would need to be approved in the United States to aid and accelerate the prospect of SARS-CoV-2 elimination in 2022. It is shown that while the treatment of symptomatic individuals has marginal effect in reducing daily cases of SARS-CoV-2, in comparison to the baseline, it has significant impact in reducing daily hospitalizations. It is further shown that, while treatment significantly reduces hospitalization, the prospects of COVID-19 elimination in the United States is more significantly enhanced if investments in control resources are focused on mask usage and vaccination rather than on treatment.

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“…Global deployment of COVID-19 vaccines is essential for saving lives in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic 1–4. A majority of countries have developed policies to guide COVID-19 vaccine use.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global disparities in public health guidance for the use of COVID-19 vaccines in pregnancy

et al. 2022

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IntroductionGaps in information about the safety and efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines in pregnancy have led to substantial global variation in public health guidance regarding the use of COVID-19 vaccines in pregnancy over the course of the pandemic.MethodsWe conducted systematic screenings of public health authorities’ websites across 224 countries and territories every 3 weeks to track the development of policies on COVID-19 vaccine use in pregnancy. Policies were categorised using a 1–5 permissiveness scale, with 1 indicating policies that recommended use, and 5 indicating policies that recommended against use.ResultsAs of 30 September 2021, 176 countries/territories had issued explicit guidance on COVID-19 vaccine use in pregnancy, with 38% recommending use, 28% permitting use, 15% permitting use with qualifications, 2% not recommending but with exceptions, and 17% not recommending use whatsoever. This represented a significant shift from May 2021, when only 6% of countries/territories with such policies recommended the use of COVID-19 vaccines in pregnancy (p<0.001). However, no policy positions could be found for 21% of all countries and territories, the vast majority being low and middle income. Policy positions also varied widely by vaccine product, with Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines being most commonly recommended or permitted.ConclusionOur study highlights the evolution of policies regarding COVID-19 vaccine use in pregnancy over a 5-month period in 2021, the role of pregnancy-specific data in shaping these policies and how inequities in access for pregnant people persist, both within countries and globally.

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Lives saved and hospitalizations averted by COVID-19 vaccination in New York City: a modeling study

Cited by 49 publications

References 39 publications

Does Hospitalization Change the Perception of COVID-19 Vaccines among Unvaccinated Patients?

Does Hospitalization Change the Perception of COVID-19 Vaccines among Unvaccinated Patients?

Unraveling the dynamics of the Omicron and Delta variants of the 2019 coronavirus in the presence of vaccination, mask usage, and antiviral treatment

Global disparities in public health guidance for the use of COVID-19 vaccines in pregnancy

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