LNG Market and Fleet Analysis

Abstract

This paper is part of larger research on the impact of present and future air emissions from the shipping industry and especially the environmental impact of the rapid spreading of the LNG as a fuel in the industry. Therefore, it was important to gather data related to the LNG market and perform an analysis to gain realistic insight into the market behaviour. This paper analyses the situation and trends of the LNG shipping market over a longer period to predict future developments. Data analysis of the several aspects and patterns of the trade has been performed; the results obtained can enable prediction of the market situation for the future. From the data analysis and predictions of the LNG market, continuous growth in the following years is expected, which linked to an increase of the LNG fleet and number of importing countries. Research has shown that new propulsion alternatives such as MEGI and XDF are appearing on the market as the first choice for new builds, while steam turbines are slowly disappearing. Although market growth is projected from all research parameters, the situation has changed due to the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the market. Consequently, growth forecasts will not be realized in 2020.

Analysis of LNG carrier propulsion developments

“…Contrary to the claim that the dominance of steam turbine propulsion has ceased in the new LNG carrier fleet built as of 2010, the market share of the different propulsion types in the existing fleet is as shown in Table 2. [7]. This article aims to fill these two gaps by examining the differences in the amount of fuel consumed, NOx and CO2, as well as the differences in associated fuel costs in a scenario where LNG vessels are operated for one year, with propulsion and voyage characteristics listed in Table 3.…”

“…Most of these analyses and predictions were not entirely reliable. The best commentary on these predictions came from Stanivuk et al who wrote that "predictions of the LNG trade volume can be difficult; they depend on a multitude of factors and the market behaviour in the analyzed period" [7]. At the same time, the mentioned recent study analysed the LNG market growth in the past and made forecasts for the near future (Figure 1.).…”

“…1. LNG trade volume per annum in million tons [7] One of the factors affecting LNG trade is the price of gas on the world market. According to many authors, this price is volatile [8,9].…”

“…Trade itself is behaving erratically. During the period from 2010 to 2015, there was almost no increase in annual LNG trade while after this period there was a rapid expansion of the trade, averaging more than 8.2% annually [7]. Predictions for the future again vary, depending on the author and the methodology used.…”

“…The growth of the LNG market is driving up costs, forcing both manufacturers and ship owners even more to optimize ship propulsion, as seen in Figure 2. [7].…”